WS Gm #5

MLB – 2016

192-184-5, $ +1,402.49, +2.75% RoR – Regular Season Closed

Playoffs 7-5-2, + $ 593.30, + 24.7% RoR

10/30, Flat $200.00

Indians +165, Series Wager

Indians, Gm 5, +209 Bauer/Lester

There is a lot of nonsense you must banish from your mind to play this one. “The Fix” is a good place to start. Not since 1929 has anyone proved a fix existed in MLB, and the circumstances under which it was done no longer exist.  That was, like them all, a gambler doing the fixing., not “Vegas” as some would have you believe exists now. Really? Nevada is a tourist economy and the single worst thing that can happen is a fix of any kind, table games, slots, sports, racing, literally anything. Consumer confidence drives tourism and Nevada offers the lowest negative odds in the world to drive consumer confidence. In the long term, every gaming establishment in the state knows that billions, perhaps hundreds of billions would be lost as a result of a gaming scandal.

MLB? Players? Umpires? MLB is driven by the same market forces as “Vegas”, consumer confidence. There is not enough money in the world to compensate for the loss of the consumer disposable dollar, especially not on a one week affair like the World Series. MLB does NOT thrive on the World Series; they thrive on being a centerpiece entertainment attraction seven months a year. All revenue is dependent on 210 days of marketing, NOT one week in October. The players are so well paid that it would take millions to buy enough of them and the “fixer” would probably not be able to get down enough money to cover that and a reasonable profit without raising warning flags and setting off sirens in “Vegas”. Do the players want to extend the series for money? NO. To avoid just such a situation almost all the player’s pool comes from the first four games, so there is no monetary advantage to stringing anything out. The same applies to all participating umpires and with today’s technical scrutiny it would be hard for even the whole team of umpires to get away with it. There is also the fact that umpires can do nothing about so much of what happens. Too many things are beyond their control. Television? Sure, Fox would like three more games, but how are they going to go about it? The added revenue from three more games would not cover the cost, the same problem the private “fixer” runs into.

Now, the game itself. The Indians are playing well; the Cubs are not. Jon Lester is a very high quality major league pitcher, not the second coming of Sandy Koufax, “Mad Bum” or Jesus Christ Himself. He will give it his best effort, but that alone does not guarantee a win. He may not have his best stuff, he may choke on the pressure, which is all on the Cubs, none on the Indians. He could take a line drive to the leg, arm, or any other part of his body and have to leave the game very early. The line has nothing to do with the quality of the rest of either teams lineup. It is based on Bauer/Lester, and bettors have elevated Lester/Cubs to the level of CAN’T POSSIBLY LOSE.

Of course, they can. On any given day any team can win or lose, especially at the highest level of professional sports, where no one got there by being lucky or having an uncle in the business. They all earned it

BOL