Posted:
#1
I've just been experimenting recently with ways to increase my win rate without the huge swings. They say I believe that you need something like 53% to make a profit. Enter Adjusted run lines parlays. It's pretty pointless to do just one adjusted run line bet because of how high the juice usually is. However, if you find an underdog you expect to win or a favorite you believe isn't being given enough credit, why not combine them into one safer bet? We all have the experience of thinking we know an underdog will win or a favorite can't lose only to see them lose by 1 or 2 runs and us feeling like shit. I think I can make Adjusted run line parlays with a 60% win rate minimum. Here are some examples from my 2/2 day.
Result: Wager Won
Reds (K Sampson) 10 vs Dodgers (M Latos) 3
08/13/15 22:10 EDT
Reds (K Sampson)
+2.5 (-250)
-Like most of you I distrusted Latos...ya you could definitely take the reds to win. But if you take two underdogs to win and hit 1/2 you usually just break even or win a small profit. I figured at the very worst reds would keep it close.
Here were my projections:
CIN chances of winning 50% + chances of losing by 2 or less 30%= 80%. Meanwhile the book was laying me -250 which is only about 70%. Clearly a winning bet, but hard to make much on its own which is why I combined it with this one:
-Like most of you I distrusted Latos...ya you could definitely take the reds to win. But if you take two underdogs to win and hit 1/2 you usually just break even or win a small profit. I figured at the very worst reds would keep it close.
Here were my projections:
CIN chances of winning 50% + chances of losing by 2 or less 30%= 80%. Meanwhile the book was laying me -250 which is only about 70%. Clearly a winning bet, but hard to make much on its own which is why I combined it with this one:
Angels (G Richards) @ Royals (J Guthrie) - Adjusted Runline B - Listed Pitchers
Angels (G Richards) 7 vs Royals (J Guthrie) 6
08/13/15 20:10 EDT
Royals (J Guthrie)
+2.5 (-270)
KC was at home and playing well. LAA hadn't done shit on the road and I believe were juiced just cuz of the pitcher matchup.
Projections:
(im rounding to make it easier)
KC chances of winning: 45% + chances of losing by 2 or less 35%= 80%.
So in conclusion, we believe both bets based on research carry an 80% success rate compared to the juice which was only in the 70%...80% x 80% = An astonishing 64%. Now compares that to your favorite O/U play of the day standing alone. Did you even believe it was 60% chances of success?
Combined, the bookie offered me a very generous -113 for the parlay. I took it happily. Would love to hear comments...I am looking at Price +1.5 tomorrow to combine with another. Below is another successful parlay I had today based on my research and formula. It just seems like a good way to take some of the luck and variance out of baseball betting...BOL
KC was at home and playing well. LAA hadn't done shit on the road and I believe were juiced just cuz of the pitcher matchup.
Projections:
(im rounding to make it easier)
KC chances of winning: 45% + chances of losing by 2 or less 35%= 80%.
So in conclusion, we believe both bets based on research carry an 80% success rate compared to the juice which was only in the 70%...80% x 80% = An astonishing 64%. Now compares that to your favorite O/U play of the day standing alone. Did you even believe it was 60% chances of success?
Combined, the bookie offered me a very generous -113 for the parlay. I took it happily. Would love to hear comments...I am looking at Price +1.5 tomorrow to combine with another. Below is another successful parlay I had today based on my research and formula. It just seems like a good way to take some of the luck and variance out of baseball betting...BOL
7. Bet#: 474341736
Parlay (2 Teams) Result: Wager Won
Brewers (T Cravy) @ Cubs (J Lester) - Adjusted Runline A - Listed Pitchers
Brewers (T Cravy) 2 vs Cubs (J Lester) 9
08/13/15 14:20 EDT
Cubs (J Lester)
+1.5 (-370)
Athletics (J Chavez) @ Blue Jays (M Buehrle) - Adjusted Runline A - Listed Pitchers
Athletics (J Chavez) 2 vs Blue Jays (M Buehrle) 4
08/13/15 12:35 EDT
Blue Jays (M Buehrle)
+1.5 (-330)
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