Posted:
#1
Miami Dolphins UNDER 8.5
There's all kinds of talk about how good the AFC East is this year because there are three teams who could make the playoffs. Well, I get the Jets and Patriots,
but who else? Certainly not Buffalo, and that only leaves the somewhat darling Miami Dolphins. I really don't understand the love that the Fish are getting. This
is a below average football team.
There are many, many ingredients to a success football team, but in essence I believe they can be broken down (over the course of the regular season) into two
statistical categories, QB rating and points allowed. Go back and look at the rankings of a teams' QB and defensive points allowed. When those two rankings add
to 32 or less you usually end up with a winning football team, when they are more than 32 you have on your hands an average (if close to 32) to bad football team
(i.e. one with a losing record). The Dolphins'ranking was 47 last season, which is terrible. The question that pertains to this season is where is the improvement?
Chad Henne was a first time starter last season and while it can be argued that he will be better in his 2nd year, especially with Brandon Marshall on board, the
fact remains that QB's rarely make monumental jumps in terms of their play. QB growth is a long and gradual process. Chad Henne was a below average QB last season
and I believe his ceiling this year even with improved receivers is an average QB. I'm not sold on the Dolphins run game either. Ronnie Brown is coming off two
huge injuries the past two seasons and who knows what we'll get this year. Ricky Williams was very good last year but let's remember he is ancient for a running
back even though he may not have as much wear as most. He really wore down late last year without Brown to take the load off. I wouldn't count on him without
Brown taking some of the load off. I have questions about this offensive line too. They have 3 new starters in the interior and they are going to have to get it
together in a hurry if this run game is to succeed at all. I think this is a very, very average offense at best and will probably be below average, and IMO the
defense will be worse.
Miami's pass defense was horrible last season routinely getting torched. In fact their 8.2 yards per attempt allowed was the worst in the entire league.
You can't win in this league nowadays if you can't stop the pass. The scary thing for Dolphins fans should be that Miami was 3rd in the league in sacks and their
pass D was still that bad. Miami's two top pass rushers from last year (and maybe more importantly veteran leaders) in Joey Porter and Jason Taylor are both gone.
The Fish are relying on three first time starters in the front 7 this season, two other no names, a grossly overpaid Karlos Dansby (who if he was any good wouldn't
have been a part of some terrible defenses in Arizona) and a guy playing nose tackle for the first time in a 3-4 defense who is very small for the position. I think
he'll really get pushed around in there. How is this team going to be able to generate the pressure to protect a young, weak secondary? I just don't think they will.
Miami was 25th in points allowed this season and I have a very hard time believing that they will be much better, if at all.
This is a below average football team IMO and below average football teams most certainly do not win 9 games.
There's all kinds of talk about how good the AFC East is this year because there are three teams who could make the playoffs. Well, I get the Jets and Patriots,
but who else? Certainly not Buffalo, and that only leaves the somewhat darling Miami Dolphins. I really don't understand the love that the Fish are getting. This
is a below average football team.
There are many, many ingredients to a success football team, but in essence I believe they can be broken down (over the course of the regular season) into two
statistical categories, QB rating and points allowed. Go back and look at the rankings of a teams' QB and defensive points allowed. When those two rankings add
to 32 or less you usually end up with a winning football team, when they are more than 32 you have on your hands an average (if close to 32) to bad football team
(i.e. one with a losing record). The Dolphins'ranking was 47 last season, which is terrible. The question that pertains to this season is where is the improvement?
Chad Henne was a first time starter last season and while it can be argued that he will be better in his 2nd year, especially with Brandon Marshall on board, the
fact remains that QB's rarely make monumental jumps in terms of their play. QB growth is a long and gradual process. Chad Henne was a below average QB last season
and I believe his ceiling this year even with improved receivers is an average QB. I'm not sold on the Dolphins run game either. Ronnie Brown is coming off two
huge injuries the past two seasons and who knows what we'll get this year. Ricky Williams was very good last year but let's remember he is ancient for a running
back even though he may not have as much wear as most. He really wore down late last year without Brown to take the load off. I wouldn't count on him without
Brown taking some of the load off. I have questions about this offensive line too. They have 3 new starters in the interior and they are going to have to get it
together in a hurry if this run game is to succeed at all. I think this is a very, very average offense at best and will probably be below average, and IMO the
defense will be worse.
Miami's pass defense was horrible last season routinely getting torched. In fact their 8.2 yards per attempt allowed was the worst in the entire league.
You can't win in this league nowadays if you can't stop the pass. The scary thing for Dolphins fans should be that Miami was 3rd in the league in sacks and their
pass D was still that bad. Miami's two top pass rushers from last year (and maybe more importantly veteran leaders) in Joey Porter and Jason Taylor are both gone.
The Fish are relying on three first time starters in the front 7 this season, two other no names, a grossly overpaid Karlos Dansby (who if he was any good wouldn't
have been a part of some terrible defenses in Arizona) and a guy playing nose tackle for the first time in a 3-4 defense who is very small for the position. I think
he'll really get pushed around in there. How is this team going to be able to generate the pressure to protect a young, weak secondary? I just don't think they will.
Miami was 25th in points allowed this season and I have a very hard time believing that they will be much better, if at all.
This is a below average football team IMO and below average football teams most certainly do not win 9 games.
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