Carfax 400 @ Michigan

CUP YTD

73-56 +12.69 units (Match-Ups)
31-24 +11.36 units (Props)
09-49 +04.55 units (Outrights)

Total: +28.60 units

10 winning races out of 12...hope Lady Luck sticks around for awhile

Match-Ups

2.50 units Jamie McMurray (-130) over David Reutimann (@5dimes)
A little nervous making McMurray my biggest play because this team is so Jekyll and Hyde but the numbers back it up. Everyone knows how good Roush is here and McMurray does his part, 4 finishes of 11th or better in the last 5 races...and was 9th in Happy Hour and 10th in overall average speed. On the plus side as well is the fact that Reutimann has struggled so far this weekend

1.50 units Jeff Gordon (-120) over Denny Hamlin (@5dimes)
Just got a feeling about Gordon today but thats not my only basis for this play. To start off he has 21 Top 10's in 33 starts here with an overall avg. of 11.5...was 6th in Happy Hour and had 2nd fastest overall speed...finished 2nd here in June and also 2nd at California which is similar. Looking for the 24 to challenge for the win

1.50 units Greg Biffle (-115) over Kasey Kahne (@5dimes)
Back to Roush again, one of Biff's best tracks(6 Top 5's and 8 Top 10's in 13 starts also has 2 wins) ran 5th here in June...9th best overall speed in last practice another one I expect to be Top 5 or better by the end of the day

1.00 unit Tony Stewart (+140) over Jimmie Johnson (@5dimes)
Just like the Keselowski play yesterday, too much value to pass up on a steady, consistent top notch team

Props

1.50 units Jeff Gordon (+100) under 6.5 (@5dimes)
1.50 units Greg Biffle (-115) under 11.5 (@5dimes)
1.50 units Carl Edwards (+100) under 6.5 (@5dimes)
Expect all three to have a shot at the win

Outrights

0.66 unit Carl Edwards (+800) @thegreek
Over the years the best team/driver at Michigan(2 wins/6 Top 5's/9 Top 10's w/avg. of 6.3 in 10 starts)

0.50 unit Jeff Gordon (+1100) @thegreek
0.40 unit Juan Pablo Montoya (+1250) @thegreek
Had the fastest overall practice speed in Happy Hour and has the same car that dominated Indy and ran well at Pocono

0.33 unit Greg Biffle (+1500) @sportsbook.com
0.10 unit Jamie McMurray (+10000) @sportsbook.com
A worthy longshot

Good luck to everyone!

CUP YTD

73-56 +12.69 units (Match-Ups)
31-24 +11.36 units (Props)
09-49 +04.55 units (Outrights)

Total: +28.60 units

10 winning races out of 12...hope Lady Luck sticks around for awhile

Match-Ups

2.50 units Jamie McMurray (-130) over David Reutimann (@5dimes)
A little nervous making McMurray my biggest play because this team is so Jekyll and Hyde but the numbers back it up. Everyone knows how good Roush is here and McMurray does his part, 4 finishes of 11th or better in the last 5 races...and was 9th in Happy Hour and 10th in overall average speed. On the plus side as well is the fact that Reutimann has struggled so far this weekend

1.50 units Jeff Gordon (-120) over Denny Hamlin (@5dimes)
Just got a feeling about Gordon today but thats not my only basis for this play. To start off he has 21 Top 10's in 33 starts here with an overall avg. of 11.5...was 6th in Happy Hour and had 2nd fastest overall speed...finished 2nd here in June and also 2nd at California which is similar. Looking for the 24 to challenge for the win

1.50 units Greg Biffle (-115) over Kasey Kahne (@5dimes)
Back to Roush again, one of Biff's best tracks(6 Top 5's and 8 Top 10's in 13 starts also has 2 wins) ran 5th here in June...9th best overall speed in last practice another one I expect to be Top 5 or better by the end of the day

1.00 unit Tony Stewart (+140) over Jimmie Johnson (@5dimes)
Just like the Keselowski play yesterday, too much value to pass up on a steady, consistent top notch team

Props

1.50 units Jeff Gordon (+100) under 6.5 (@5dimes)
1.50 units Greg Biffle (-115) under 11.5 (@5dimes)
1.50 units Carl Edwards (+100) under 6.5 (@5dimes)
Expect all three to have a shot at the win

Outrights

0.66 unit Carl Edwards (+800) @thegreek
Over the years the best team/driver at Michigan(2 wins/6 Top 5's/9 Top 10's w/avg. of 6.3 in 10 starts)

0.50 unit Jeff Gordon (+1100) @thegreek
0.40 unit Juan Pablo Montoya (+1250) @thegreek
Had the fastest overall practice speed in Happy Hour and has the same car that dominated Indy and ran well at Pocono

0.33 unit Greg Biffle (+1500) @sportsbook.com
0.10 unit Jamie McMurray (+10000) @sportsbook.com
A worthy longshot

Good luck to everyone!

2-2 - 2.08 units (Match-Ups)
2-1 +1.28 units (Props)
0-5 - 1.99 units (Outrights)

Total: - 2.79 units

Biffle fading from 11th to 20th on the last lap cost me a winning day, not sure what happened to McMurray either...after last caution restarted 8th but faded to 32nd...will take my lumps and move on to Bristol, my co-favorite weekend of the year (tied with Darlington of course)