Coke Zero 400 @ Daytona

CUP YTD

+03.42 units (Match-Ups)
+10.21 units (Props)
- 01.19 units (Outrights)

Total: +12.44 units

Really like the card for today but never comfortable at Daytona or Talladega, one little slip and you can lose your ass.....hope to continue a 3 race win streak

Match-Ups

1.50 units Kurt Busch (-125) over Denny Hamlin (@sportsbook)
This one is automatic for me. You got a driver in Busch that is very good at plate racing (9 Top 5's and 15 Top 10's in last 20 starts) against Hamlin who has yet to develop a knack for it (2 Top 5's/Top 10's in 14 starts including 10 finishes of 21st or worse). This year Busch has finished 6th and 10th in plate races and Hamlin 22nd and 26th.
Busch overall has been more consistent in 2009 and even though I don't put much stock in practice speeds here Busch was in the Top 10 in both sessions.

1.50 units Kasey Kahne (+100) over Martin Truex (@thegreek)
Liking the Dodge horsepower of late and Kahne seems to be the best of the bunch. Has a 10.0 place avg the last 6 races and at Daytona has been Top 10 in 4 of last 5. Truex has never been Top 10 here and has an avg of 21.1....only 2 Top 10's in 17 races this year.

1.00 unit Tony Stewart (-120) over Jeff Gordon (@thegreek)
Just can't overlook the roll Smoke has been on (6 Top 5's in 8 races) and while Jeff has done well of late, like Stewart better on plate tracks

1.00 unit Clint Bowyer (+115) over Kevin Harvick (@thegreek)
Both of these guys have good stats at Daytona but seem to be heading in different directions in 2009...the last 5 races Bowyer has an avg of 12.2 and has been competitive for the most part, Harvick during that same time has an avg. of 24.4 and in most of those races has struggled with a variety of issues

1.00 unit Matt Kenseth (+110) over Carl Edwards (@thegreek)
While, this year, Edwards has been better of late....Kenseth has been a little better on the superspeedways

1.00 Juan Pablo Montoya (+135) over Ryan Newman (@5dimes)
JPM seems to be a threat for the Top 10 every week and if he can keep his nose clean think he will be there again tonight. Newman is capable of that feat as well but after a great start to the year this team has slipped back the last few races

Props

1.00 Kurt Busch (-115) under 12.5 (@sportsbook)
Tempted to go higher on this one but the fear of the big one wins out...Kurt has beaten this number in 5 0f 6 at Daytona including 4 in a row

1.00 unit Juan Pablo Montoya (+100) under 18.5 (@5dimes)
Once again its all about staying out of trouble, if JPM does that this should be a winner

1.00 Denny Hamlin (-115) over 13.5 (@sportsbook)
Hamlin has never beaten this number in 7 starts here

Outrights

Pass

Like last night have no interest in making guesses

Good luck to everyone! Have a great holiday weekend!

3-3 -0.03 unit (Match-Ups)
2-1 +0.85 unit (Props)

Total: +0.82 unit

Show a small (very small) profit tonight.....enough to keep the winning streak going