Posted:
#1
CUP YTD
-9.69 units
Lots of unpredictability in plate racing, even more now with the cooling issues...but played a few.
(One of my plays was to be Ambrose over Allmendinger but just announced AJ has been temporarily suspended)
PLAYS
2 units Matt Kenseth (-115) under 10.5
2 units Dale Jr (-115) under 10.5
If these two just stay clean with no fuel mileage funny business....... both plays should be good
2 units Greg Biffle (-125) over Jeff Burton
The Fords have the cooling advantage over the Chevys but it looked like the 16 was just flat out better than the 31 anyway
2 units Dale Jr (-125) over Jimmie Johnson
Call it bad luck or poor performance but outside of one win JJ just has not been good on plate tracks (last 10 starts/ 25.5 avg. finish and 2 Top 10's). We all know Jr is capable (3 Top 5's in last 5 starts at Daytona)
OUTRIGHTS
0.80 unit Matt Kenseth (+1000)
See no reason not to take a shot on the pole sitter and Daytona 500 winner
0.50 unit Greg Biffle (+1400)
While I'm at it I'll drop a little on Kenseth's dance partner
0.20 unit Ryan Newman (+3600)
0.20 unit Jamie McMurray (+3800)
0.15 unit Marcos Ambrose (+5000)
0.10 unit Aric Almirola (+85000
Always take a look at some longshots at plate tracks. Newman has 0, thats zero Top 20's in the last 10 plate races for a variety of reasons. But has a fast ride tonight and that streak can't last forever.
McMurray has a won here and always seem to run well just don't finish well a lot of the time....but is fast again tonight and had the fastest 10 lap avg in first practice (not sure if that means a whole lot at Daytona)
The RPM cars of Ambrose and Almirola are two very strong Fords. If they make it to the end they should be near the front pack if not in it.
Good luck!
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