Posted:
#1
YTD
-33 units (it ain't gettin' no better)
Had a surprisingly good day in CFB yesterday so thought I'd try to use it to cut into this deficit( can't believe how bad its been) especially since 5dimes is trying to give away money.
MATCH-UPS
3 units Bill Elliott (-245) over Mike Bliss (@5dimes)
3 units Patrick Carpentier (-230) over Joe Nemechek @5dimes)
No way in hell would I normally play this big on lines this high (actually I would have never before played a line this high) but got to try these two.
You've got two teams Wood Brothers (Elliott) and Bill Jenkins (Carpentier) that have full sponsorship and are here to run the full distance matched up with an Independent (Nemecheck) and Prism Motorsports (Bliss) two teams with no sponsorship who are start and park teams. If Elliott and Carpentier can survive the first 10 laps or so (maybe even less) these are winners.
Note: there is a 3rd match-up of this type where David Gilliland (Doug Yates) is -265 over JJ Yeley (Tommy Baldwin). I am laying off this one due to the fact even without sponsorship Baldwin at times makes an effort to run longer than a nomal start and park entry. I haven't been able to find any info on this if any one knows please post.
1.5 units Dave Blaney (+170) Casey Mears (@5dimes)
Two more back markers (but both scheduled to attempt to run the full distance) just think the difference in these teams is mimimal so taking a chance here
1.5 Carl Edwards (-115) over Kyle Busch (@5dimes)
The 99 is my personal favorite today....so that means he'll blow up while leading or some crap like that
1 unit Juan Montoya (+150) over Denny Hamlin (@5dimes)
This is probably JPM's best oval back to back 3rd place runs here so good value with a legitimate chance
1 unit Matt Kenseth (-120) over Dale Jr. (@5dimes)
Neither one lightin' it up in qualifying or happy hour but on raceday the 17 usually shows up( 6.7 avg L10 here...including 6 Top 5's....worst finish was 13th). Jr only has 1 Top 10 in the last 7 here but a respectable 13.7 avg
1 unit Tony Stewart (-125) over Kevin Harvick (@5dimes)
Simply stated Tony looks fast Harvick doesn't
Outrights
0.75 unit Carl Edwards (+1000) @ sportsbook.com
0.50 unit Juan Montoya (+1500) @sportsbook.com
0.50 unit Kasey Kahne (+1200) @sportsbook.com
0.30 unit Ryan Newman (+1800) @sportsbook.com
May add props when they come out if I have any $$$$$ left
Good luck!
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