Posted:
#1
...I always like wagering on awards shows. They are pretty easy to research and there's money to be made. So after we all make money on the race today, I'll take my winnings and put them on some Oscar bets.
Note: On these award shows, what seems to happen is that I have a real good grasp on them and I clean up. Occasionally though, I'm way off track and lose a lot. Basically I've learned I'm either going to get most right or most wrong...not really in the middle. So tail at your own risk...and don't risk a lot if you do.
Thought I'd share what I'll be wagering tonight with my fellow Nascar friends.
Best Picture:
Argo is the big fav at -600, but the race is very open. Lincoln could win, and at +600 that's a great price. My worry is that Argo is going to get a lot of sympathy votes since Afflec didn't even get nominated for Best Director.
Value pick-Very small on Lincoln +600
Best Director
Spielberg is going to win this category, and even though -255 is a steep price, it's also the best bet tonight.
Pick-Spielberg
Best Actor
Daniel Day Lewis, but there's no value at -3250.
No Pick
Best Actress
Pretty wide open, but Jennifer Lawrence seems to have the momentum over Jessica Chastain. Lawrence is -185, and Chastain is at +750...but I think the best wager is playing Emmanuella Riva v Field. Field at -335...it's a lot of juice, but the winner is going to be Lawrence or Chastain.
Pick-Field over Riva
Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones is the front runner, but this is a real close race. Waltz and Hoffman have chances...but at +120 that's too good of value to pass up on Tommy Lee.
Pick-Tommy Lee Jones
Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway will win, but at -4500 no value.
No Pick
Adpated Screenplay
Unless, the books know something I don't (which is possible), I think they made a mistake here. Lincoln seems to be the Hollywood favorite, but it's listed as +150 as the underdog. Best value pick tonight.
Pick-Tony Kushner, Lincoln.
Original Screenplay
Should come down to Django Unchained and Zero Dark Thirty. Django is listed at +100...Zero is at +180. I'll wager the same amount on both. If Django wins, I break even, if Zero wins, I come out with a small profit.
Picks Django Unchained and Zero Dark Thirty
There are lots of other categories, but these are the ones I like.
Most wide open category tonight is actually Best Animated. First time in a long time 3 animated features could win. It's an interesting battle between Pixar and Disney. May not mean a lot to the general public, but it's a big deal in the industry.
GL tonight
Note: On these award shows, what seems to happen is that I have a real good grasp on them and I clean up. Occasionally though, I'm way off track and lose a lot. Basically I've learned I'm either going to get most right or most wrong...not really in the middle. So tail at your own risk...and don't risk a lot if you do.
Thought I'd share what I'll be wagering tonight with my fellow Nascar friends.
Best Picture:
Argo is the big fav at -600, but the race is very open. Lincoln could win, and at +600 that's a great price. My worry is that Argo is going to get a lot of sympathy votes since Afflec didn't even get nominated for Best Director.
Value pick-Very small on Lincoln +600
Best Director
Spielberg is going to win this category, and even though -255 is a steep price, it's also the best bet tonight.
Pick-Spielberg
Best Actor
Daniel Day Lewis, but there's no value at -3250.
No Pick
Best Actress
Pretty wide open, but Jennifer Lawrence seems to have the momentum over Jessica Chastain. Lawrence is -185, and Chastain is at +750...but I think the best wager is playing Emmanuella Riva v Field. Field at -335...it's a lot of juice, but the winner is going to be Lawrence or Chastain.
Pick-Field over Riva
Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones is the front runner, but this is a real close race. Waltz and Hoffman have chances...but at +120 that's too good of value to pass up on Tommy Lee.
Pick-Tommy Lee Jones
Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway will win, but at -4500 no value.
No Pick
Adpated Screenplay
Unless, the books know something I don't (which is possible), I think they made a mistake here. Lincoln seems to be the Hollywood favorite, but it's listed as +150 as the underdog. Best value pick tonight.
Pick-Tony Kushner, Lincoln.
Original Screenplay
Should come down to Django Unchained and Zero Dark Thirty. Django is listed at +100...Zero is at +180. I'll wager the same amount on both. If Django wins, I break even, if Zero wins, I come out with a small profit.
Picks Django Unchained and Zero Dark Thirty
There are lots of other categories, but these are the ones I like.
Most wide open category tonight is actually Best Animated. First time in a long time 3 animated features could win. It's an interesting battle between Pixar and Disney. May not mean a lot to the general public, but it's a big deal in the industry.
GL tonight
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