Posted:
#1
CUP YTD
+7.65 units (Match-Ups)
- 8.35 units (Props/FP)
- 9.26 units (Outrights)
Total: -9.96 units
Pocono was very good to me...not how about Michigan
Match-Ups
2.00 units David Reutimann (+115) over Martin Truex (@thegreek)
Battle of MWR teammates, so the cars should be pretty equal...9th and 13th in quals/21st and 17th in Happy Hour.
The advantage I see in the dog here is in overall average speed in HH (00 was 20th, 56 was 28th) and history on the 2 mile tracks of Michigan and a similar California (last 7 races Reutimann an avg. of 14/ Truex an avg of 25.7 and Reutimann has beaten him head to head in all 7). Realize Treux was in DEI equipment in all but one of those (Cali this year) but looks like Reuti has a better feel for this place.
1.50 units Jeff Gordon (+145) over Jimmie Johnson (@5dimes)
JJ looks very strong but Gordon is not far behind him. The 48 has had rotten luck here losing on fuel mileage both races last year while the 24 ran 2nd in both. Thinking that with a little luck Gordon could steal a win here and break the losing streak
1.50 units Carl Edwards (-125) over Mark Martin (@thegreek)
Roush has had their share of problems but this has been one of the best tracks for Ford and for Edwards ( 2 wins/7 Top 5's/10 Top 10's/6.1 avg. in 11 career starts...last 8 races his avg. is 4.0)
1.50 units Jamie McMurray (+115) over Juan Montoya (@thegreek)
Jamie Mac should do well today but this is more of a play against JPM, just not liking what I see out of this team this weekend. Not a great track for him to start with (26th place avg.) but outside of placing 10th in qualifying all of his practice times have been mid pack or worse.
Props/FP
2.00 units Matt Kenseth (+105) to finish Top 10 (@5dimes)
His career average in 21 starts here is 9.9
2.00 units Jeff Gordon (-105) to finish Top 5 (@5dimes)
Has a legitimate shot at the win (5th and 4th in Sat. practice/3rd in overall avg. speed)
2.00 units Carl Edwards (-125) under 9.5 (@sportsbook.com)
Hoping for a good day for Roush-Fenway
1.00 unit David Reutimann (+215) to finish Top 10 (@5dimes)
Outrights
0.66 unit Jeff Gordon (+850) @5dimes
0.33 unit Carl Edwards (+2000) @thegreek
0.33 unit Matt Kenseth (+2000) @thegreek
0.10 unit David Reutimann (+5000) @sportsbook.com
0.10 unit Paul Menard (+7500) @sportsbook.com
Menard was 1st and 2nd in the two Sat. practices and 8th in overall Happy Hour speed
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