Kobalt Tools 400 Forecast

I think we are in for a great race today in Las Vegas for the Kobalt Tools 400.  Will there be a big one at Vegas? Doubtful, but I think we could see a little bit of retaliation carry over from a few of last weeks wrecks.  Carl Edwards says that he and Kyle spoke, and that they are fine, but this is Carl Edwards.  He has said this in the past and eventually got revenge on drivers who have accidentally ruined his day and fully believes his car should have won the race in Phoenix.  I think he will wait until Bristol, but you never know.  Patience will be a key in this race today, and I don't think we will see the hard driving and ridiculous moves that we saw early last week that proved to be costly for key drivers in match ups and threats to potentially win the race. 

This week, I am rolling the dice in the Forecast for the Vegas race on three drivers I think should be running out in front all day, and be around with 10 to go running in the top 5 and a chance to win.

Kobalt Tools 400 Outright Picks
Jeff Gordon +1400
Jeff Burton +3000
Mark Martin +2800

Jeff Gordon is a driver that I have punched in outright to win in Vegas at +1400.  The momentum will carry over from last week and from a fan standpoint, I was happy to see him back in victory lane again.  Last year he led a race high 219 laps and finished third in 2010; and has finished sixth or better in five of his last six starts in Vegas.  I think it might take him a few pit stops to make the proper adjustments to get up front, but I expect him to be dialed in at the half way point and be within striking distance at the end, or leading when it's all said and done taking the checkered flag for his second win in a row

Another driver I am taking to win outright today is, Jeff Burton at +3000.  The only thing that concerns me from a betting perspective and an outright win is that after the first two races, this is a team sitting 33rd in the points after blowing up, and demolishing his car last week.  This team might be content with a top ten finish, but I think he will have a car today that can win. Statistically, this is the   best track on the circuit for Burton based on 9.9 average finish in 13 starts; He has won two races there (1999, 2000) with Roush Racing; and his last six starts have come with Richard Childress Racing with an average finish of 8.5 in the four races on the track's new configuration; He is bringing a new chassis for this race, and I expect him to be in the top 5 this week with a great chance to win if he plays his cards right. 

Lastly, I am taking a shot with Mark Martin to win outright today at +2800. Some of you may be asking where the Roush-Fenway guys are at this point, but it's Vegas, and I am gambling on the old man who tasted victory lane in the Nationwide race to follow up again today.The first Cup event here in 1998 was won by Martin in a Ford, today I think he has a great chance to bring Chevrolet to victory lane.. Martin hasn't won here since, but has six top-5s, and ten top-10s in his 13 attempts, so I think he will be a top 5 car contending for the win after the last set of pit stops. 

Kobalt Tools 400 Match-Ups
Jeff Gordon +120 vs. Greg Biffle -160
Jeff Burton -105 vs. Joey Logano -133
Mark Martin +100 vs. Kurt Busch -140
Jimmie Johnson +115 vs. Kyle Busch -145
Bobby Labonte -105 vs. Trevor Bayne -125

Kobalt Tools 400 Doppler Radar
1. Jeff Gordon
2. Mark Martin
3. Jeff Burton
4. Jimmie Johnson
5. Matt Kenseth

Best of luck to everyone today and enjoy the race,

FF

good luck 

good info buddy! like burton and kenseth!

Best of luck today Floyd. Great writeup as always.

gl

nice write up. gl

GL today, nice looking card 

I don't have any of those guys near the top.