Martinsville - Have a feeling it's not Jimmy's day

What's up guys? Haven't posted in a while, but have some time on my hands today & I was hoping to pick some brains on the race. Martinsville today... We can usually guarantee this is Jimmy v. Hamlin. Actually, I played Hamlin during the week at +550. Gotta say, though. I don't think it's a winner. Just thought it was the only value in a 2 man race. When I heard about Hamlin's knee before the season, I said I wouldn't bet Denny all year. I felt like he would go winless this year, and I still do. I've torn an ACL before, and that just seems like too much to deal with in these cars.

I can't help feeling like it's not Jimmy's day though. It just seems too easy for him today. He's on an absolute tear right now(won 3 of 5 this year so far), he dominates at Martinsville, winning 5 of the last 7, and he lucked out with qualifying getting rained out. He certainly looks set to win again, and I wouldn't blame anybody for betting Jimmy, even at +200 and just walking away.  Let's say it's not his week though. Maybe a cut tire, maybe his breaks go, maybe he just gets shuffled up in a late caution, or maybe somebody actually gets tired of him winning & spins him out.

I was looking back at past Martinsville races before the weekend, and I was surprised to see Jamie McMurray's name pop up over & over in the top 5. I had my eye on him in practice, and sure enough, he looked really good. He even led Happy Hour. He also had the fastest avg. time in the 2nd. In fact, Montoya looked really good too. I know, I know. Montoya's always great in practice but he's struggled finishing this year so far. Besides the big speedways though, he's shown he's really good on flat tracks. He's also really good when a lot of braking is involved. I feel like I can count on him to get after it if he's there at the end too. Right now, I'm leaning towards taking a shot with both Earnhardt Ganassi boys at 15-1. Burton looks good at 15-1, but he's not aggressive enough for me late in races, and possibly Bowyer may be worth a shot at 18-1. We know how good Gordon is here, but 5-1 is definately worth it, IMO.  What's everyone thinking today?

long time no see DRoc.

I hear you on the 5-1 with Jeffie but I went ahead and played him anyways AT 6-1. I think its Hendricks race to lose today but with that being said, you never know about the weather. It very well could be a factor here and I absolutely hate rain shortened racing.

Rain shortened racing =

I don't think we get in enough of the race for it to be shortened.  I think we either finish or just crank it up tomorrow.

With that said i do think it is an HMS car today but I feel the 5 is going to be the car that gets there in the end whenever that may be!!!

Here's what I played:

• Denny Hamlin +550  .5 unit 
• Juan Pablo Montoya  +1500  .5unit 
• Jamie McMurray +1500  .5unit 
• Jimmie Johnson  +250 .5unit 

Obviously rooting for the #1 & #42 today, but I'll be ok with the expected result of Jimmy or Denny. GL guys!

Quote Originally Posted by Maxx40:

  I think JPM has a chance today, definitely a good car and this is one of his best tracks...somewhat disagree on Gordon, you may see more of an aggresive side to him today...especially if he is in the hunt at the end

Maxx, I hear u on Gordon, but I've refused to put money on Gordon or Junior for 2 years. Both are always capable, but neither can actually win anymore. I'll continue to make them prove me wrong for the time being.  I know you can say the same about Montoya, but there's much more value in 15-1, IMO. GL today.

Thanks, Goggles! You too!