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All Forums | Nascar

Nascar starting to lose some popularity?

coloradobuff
vegasdennis
HutchEmAll
freamer3
madshooter72
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coloradobuff
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Posted: Feb. 11, 2010 - 12:27 PM ET #1

I dont follow Nascar that closely, but I used to about 8-10 years ago, back when there was some parity, and some 30/1 or 40/1 longshots would win races alot more than they do nowadays..

My question is Nascar starting to lose some popularity because its alot more predictable nowadays?
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I dont follow Nascar that closely, but I used to about 8-10 years ago, back when there was some parity, and some 30/1 or 40/1 longshots would win races alot more than they do nowadays..

My question is Nascar starting to lose some popularity because its alot more predictable nowadays?
 
vegasdennis
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Posted: Feb. 11, 2010 - 12:33 PM ET #2

I wouldn't say its more predictable.As far is losing popularity I don't think so still drawing good TV ratings and attracting high dollar sponsors.

Very  few tracks have trouble selling out for cup races
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I wouldn't say its more predictable.As far is losing popularity I don't think so still drawing good TV ratings and attracting high dollar sponsors.

Very  few tracks have trouble selling out for cup races
 
coloradobuff
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Posted: Feb. 11, 2010 - 12:55 PM ET #3

Vegas, I think its definitely a lot more top heavy than it was 8-10 years ago..hardly and i mean hardly ever see a 30 or 40/1 shot win thesedays.
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Vegas, I think its definitely a lot more top heavy than it was 8-10 years ago..hardly and i mean hardly ever see a 30 or 40/1 shot win thesedays.
 
HutchEmAll
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Posted: Feb. 11, 2010 - 12:56 PM ET #4

Take away JJ and you'd have plenty of parity. 
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Take away JJ and you'd have plenty of parity. 
 
vegasdennis
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Posted: Feb. 11, 2010 - 12:57 PM ET #5

Quote Originally Posted by coloradobuff:

Vegas, I think its definitely a lot more top heavy than it was 8-10 years ago..hardly and i mean hardly ever see a 30 or 40/1 shot win thesedays.



thats true but it does happen hell a 150-1 cashed once last year
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Quote Originally Posted by coloradobuff:

Vegas, I think its definitely a lot more top heavy than it was 8-10 years ago..hardly and i mean hardly ever see a 30 or 40/1 shot win thesedays.



thats true but it does happen hell a 150-1 cashed once last year
 
coloradobuff
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Posted: Feb. 11, 2010 - 1:05 PM ET #6

ok, so it does happen..ok just wanted to see if anything of significance came in last year and i guess it did.
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ok, so it does happen..ok just wanted to see if anything of significance came in last year and i guess it did.
 
vegasdennis
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Posted: Feb. 11, 2010 - 1:08 PM ET #7

don't have exact odds but 4 come to mind that were nice win price

Keselowski

Reutimann

Logano

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don't have exact odds but 4 come to mind that were nice win price

Keselowski

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Logano

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freamer3
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Posted: Feb. 11, 2010 - 1:24 PM ET #8

Well, I'm bored so I did some research. In 1999, there were 11 different race winners. There were only 3 races won by drivers outside the top 8. They were Terry Labonte (12th place), John Andretti (17th) and Joe Nemechek (30th).

Last year 14 different drivers won races. Outside the top 8 finishers, Kahne (8th) won twice, Vickers (12th), Kyle Busch (13th) 4 wins, Kenseth (14th) 2 wins, Logano (20th), McMurray (22nd) and Keselowski (38th) were all winners. And Carl Edwards, Juan Montoya, Kevin Harvick, Clint Bowyer, Jeff Burton and Greg Biffle all failed to win a race after past success. So I would argue that the field is deeper with more talented drivers and capable teams than ever before.

But if you want to argue that Nascar is not as popular as it was say five or six years ago because there are fewer polarizing personalities, fueds and the races often resemble a game of follow the leader with little passing once the actual race gets under way then you're on to something. I think the powers tht be are taking steps to correct that, I sure hope so.
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Well, I'm bored so I did some research. In 1999, there were 11 different race winners. There were only 3 races won by drivers outside the top 8. They were Terry Labonte (12th place), John Andretti (17th) and Joe Nemechek (30th).

Last year 14 different drivers won races. Outside the top 8 finishers, Kahne (8th) won twice, Vickers (12th), Kyle Busch (13th) 4 wins, Kenseth (14th) 2 wins, Logano (20th), McMurray (22nd) and Keselowski (38th) were all winners. And Carl Edwards, Juan Montoya, Kevin Harvick, Clint Bowyer, Jeff Burton and Greg Biffle all failed to win a race after past success. So I would argue that the field is deeper with more talented drivers and capable teams than ever before.

But if you want to argue that Nascar is not as popular as it was say five or six years ago because there are fewer polarizing personalities, fueds and the races often resemble a game of follow the leader with little passing once the actual race gets under way then you're on to something. I think the powers tht be are taking steps to correct that, I sure hope so.
 
madshooter72
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Posted: Feb. 11, 2010 - 1:27 PM ET #9

Quote Originally Posted by coloradobuff:

Vegas, I think its definitely a lot more top heavy than it was 8-10 years ago..hardly and i mean hardly ever see a 30 or 40/1 shot win thesedays.

 

have to disagree with you here, last year we saw quite a few guys at 20-1 or higher win races...at least in sprint cup...now when it comes to trucks and nationwide, it isn't seen as much... I usually keep the lines from the previous year, I know Kenseth last year was over 30-1, Newman was over 50-1 when he won, Harvick was 20-1 3 yrs ago....Hell if you had Keselowski at Dega last year, he was 150-1

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Quote Originally Posted by coloradobuff:

Vegas, I think its definitely a lot more top heavy than it was 8-10 years ago..hardly and i mean hardly ever see a 30 or 40/1 shot win thesedays.

 

have to disagree with you here, last year we saw quite a few guys at 20-1 or higher win races...at least in sprint cup...now when it comes to trucks and nationwide, it isn't seen as much... I usually keep the lines from the previous year, I know Kenseth last year was over 30-1, Newman was over 50-1 when he won, Harvick was 20-1 3 yrs ago....Hell if you had Keselowski at Dega last year, he was 150-1

 
madshooter72
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Posted: Feb. 11, 2010 - 1:29 PM ET #10

I do agree with you in the sense that the top favorite a few years ago would be listed at 7-1 or higher, now last year we were lucky to see 3 or 4-1 odds.
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I do agree with you in the sense that the top favorite a few years ago would be listed at 7-1 or higher, now last year we were lucky to see 3 or 4-1 odds.
 
freamer3
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Posted: Feb. 11, 2010 - 3:47 PM ET #11

Guys what I am taking away from this is more gambling related than Nascar popularity related, but it is a good discussion. Reason being is that to add on to what MS said on top of my research is that a decade ago even though only 7 or 8 guys could possibly win, any one of those could win from anywhere in the field because they had superior equipment and ability. Now, even though Nascar has drawn talented guys from all over the globe and more teams put top equipment out there the "to win" odds are shorter than ever any given week becuase the cars themselves are painted into such a tight box to start with and are tough to handle on the track that after practice and qualifying you know who the top teams are that week and it takes something outside the ordinary for that to change during the race.
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Guys what I am taking away from this is more gambling related than Nascar popularity related, but it is a good discussion. Reason being is that to add on to what MS said on top of my research is that a decade ago even though only 7 or 8 guys could possibly win, any one of those could win from anywhere in the field because they had superior equipment and ability. Now, even though Nascar has drawn talented guys from all over the globe and more teams put top equipment out there the "to win" odds are shorter than ever any given week becuase the cars themselves are painted into such a tight box to start with and are tough to handle on the track that after practice and qualifying you know who the top teams are that week and it takes something outside the ordinary for that to change during the race.
 
art-frost
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Posted: Feb. 12, 2010 - 11:05 AM ET #12

Quote Originally Posted by vegasdennis:

don't have exact odds but 4 come to mind that were nice win price

Keselowski

Reutimann

Logano

McMurray

two rain outs

two plate races

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Quote Originally Posted by vegasdennis:

don't have exact odds but 4 come to mind that were nice win price

Keselowski

Reutimann

Logano

McMurray

two rain outs

two plate races

 
vegasdennis
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Posted: Feb. 12, 2010 - 11:30 AM ET #13

Quote Originally Posted by art-frost:

two rain outs

two plate races




still pays same
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Quote Originally Posted by art-frost:

two rain outs

two plate races




still pays same
 
TREE88
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Posted: Feb. 12, 2010 - 8:18 PM ET #14

Quote Originally Posted by art-frost:

two rain outs

two plate races

 

Uhhhhhh and your point is?????

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Quote Originally Posted by art-frost:

two rain outs

two plate races

 

Uhhhhhh and your point is?????

 
stats1
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Posted: Feb. 12, 2010 - 8:51 PM ET #15

Quote Originally Posted by art-frost:

two rain outs

two plate races

       do u not get paid 4 winners on those races???
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Quote Originally Posted by art-frost:

two rain outs

two plate races

       do u not get paid 4 winners on those races???
 
stats1
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Posted: Feb. 12, 2010 - 8:58 PM ET #16

Quote Originally Posted by coloradobuff:

I dont follow Nascar that closely, but I used to about 8-10 years ago, back when there was some parity, and some 30/1 or 40/1 longshots would win races alot more than they do nowadays..

My question is Nascar starting to lose some popularity because its alot more predictable nowadays?
   think its only predictable at certain types of tracks  1.5  2 mile tracks   and then even those come down 2 fuel   or a 2 tire  4 tire stop half the time!!!!!!   if its so predictable  start leting me know who is gonna win early sun. morning....   thx
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Quote Originally Posted by coloradobuff:

I dont follow Nascar that closely, but I used to about 8-10 years ago, back when there was some parity, and some 30/1 or 40/1 longshots would win races alot more than they do nowadays..

My question is Nascar starting to lose some popularity because its alot more predictable nowadays?
   think its only predictable at certain types of tracks  1.5  2 mile tracks   and then even those come down 2 fuel   or a 2 tire  4 tire stop half the time!!!!!!   if its so predictable  start leting me know who is gonna win early sun. morning....   thx
 
art-frost
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Posted: Feb. 13, 2010 - 11:37 AM ET #17

[Quote: Originally Posted by TREE88]

 

Uhhhhhh and your point is?????

my point is take away the plate racing and the rain outs

and how many longshots do you remember winning??

maybe kahne at sonoma...don't remember what his odds

were...can't think of any others.

SUNDAYS PLAYS...

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kurt busch 15-1

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brad k

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[Quote: Originally Posted by TREE88]

 

Uhhhhhh and your point is?????

my point is take away the plate racing and the rain outs

and how many longshots do you remember winning??

maybe kahne at sonoma...don't remember what his odds

were...can't think of any others.

SUNDAYS PLAYS...

WIN

kurt busch 15-1

TOP 3'S

jeff burton

brad k

sam hornish

good luck with your plays

 
madshooter72
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Posted: Feb. 13, 2010 - 11:57 AM ET #18

ok, let me give this a shot

 

longshots..

 

how bout kyle @35-1 odds at the road coarse, remember he wrecked in practice , started last...and dominated and won the race,,, i remember that one well, wish i had more on him that day.

I recall at least 1/2 of the 1st 10 races having the winner being over 10-1 odds on the sprint cup side....

sure, there were weeks where it was pretty clear who should win the race as the odds reflected that, but it doesn't always happen that way....ex. pocono last yr, with Hamlin clearly having the dominate car but never even made the 1st lap...had him that day too.

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ok, let me give this a shot

 

longshots..

 

how bout kyle @35-1 odds at the road coarse, remember he wrecked in practice , started last...and dominated and won the race,,, i remember that one well, wish i had more on him that day.

I recall at least 1/2 of the 1st 10 races having the winner being over 10-1 odds on the sprint cup side....

sure, there were weeks where it was pretty clear who should win the race as the odds reflected that, but it doesn't always happen that way....ex. pocono last yr, with Hamlin clearly having the dominate car but never even made the 1st lap...had him that day too.

 
TREE88
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Posted: Feb. 13, 2010 - 12:31 PM ET #19

Quote Originally Posted by art-frost:

Quote Originally Posted by TREE88:

 

Uhhhhhh and your point is?????

my point is take away the plate racing and the rain outs

and how many longshots do you remember winning??

maybe kahne at sonoma...don't remember what his odds

were...can't think of any others.

SUNDAYS PLAYS...

WIN

kurt busch 15-1

TOP 3'S

jeff burton

brad k

sam hornish

good luck with your plays

\

I think if you'll go back and look at the season you will see several longshot winners....(10-1 or better)

I think you are remembering only the last 10 chase races in which I don't even have to go look up. Im sure 90% of those were probably won by chase drivers who were probably all below 10-1. Hell I think I remember Jimmie being a 2-1 favorite in one of those races and Im pretty sure he won it. But if you'll look at all the previous races and odds I think you'll be suprised. I'm not going to take the time to do it because it isn't worth debating. If you think that only the favorites win....then so be it....bet em up!

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Quote Originally Posted by art-frost:

Quote Originally Posted by TREE88:

 

Uhhhhhh and your point is?????

my point is take away the plate racing and the rain outs

and how many longshots do you remember winning??

maybe kahne at sonoma...don't remember what his odds

were...can't think of any others.

SUNDAYS PLAYS...

WIN

kurt busch 15-1

TOP 3'S

jeff burton

brad k

sam hornish

good luck with your plays

\

I think if you'll go back and look at the season you will see several longshot winners....(10-1 or better)

I think you are remembering only the last 10 chase races in which I don't even have to go look up. Im sure 90% of those were probably won by chase drivers who were probably all below 10-1. Hell I think I remember Jimmie being a 2-1 favorite in one of those races and Im pretty sure he won it. But if you'll look at all the previous races and odds I think you'll be suprised. I'm not going to take the time to do it because it isn't worth debating. If you think that only the favorites win....then so be it....bet em up!

 
art-frost
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Posted: Feb. 13, 2010 - 1:17 PM ET #20

i'm not a favorite better...and i never said only favorites win...he was talking about parity and 30 ad 40-1 longshots.

not trying to argue with anyone.

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i'm not a favorite better...and i never said only favorites win...he was talking about parity and 30 ad 40-1 longshots.

not trying to argue with anyone.

 
 
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Posted: Feb. 14, 2010 - 12:06 AM ET #21

Quote Originally Posted by art-frost:

i'm not a favorite better...and i never said only favorites win...he was talking about parity and 30 ad 40-1 longshots.

not trying to argue with anyone.

 

 I actually get the point that you are trying to convey.Taking into account that rainouts can occur at anytime including in the middle of pit cycles, and the fact that given a little luck any of the 43 cars (that aren't "start and park") can win a "plate" race,the field really isn't as competitive as the #09,#00,#20,and #26 victories would lead you to believe.

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Quote Originally Posted by art-frost:

i'm not a favorite better...and i never said only favorites win...he was talking about parity and 30 ad 40-1 longshots.

not trying to argue with anyone.

 

 I actually get the point that you are trying to convey.Taking into account that rainouts can occur at anytime including in the middle of pit cycles, and the fact that given a little luck any of the 43 cars (that aren't "start and park") can win a "plate" race,the field really isn't as competitive as the #09,#00,#20,and #26 victories would lead you to believe.

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