Posted:
#1
last week: 3-2
YTD: 84-60, plus 21.75 units
On to the desert this week. I hate this track. The flat milers just do nothing for me, and this one is crooked. With sky blue walls. Anyway, still money to be made. I'll try my hand at these:
Bowyer +130 over McMurray-this line just rather baffles me. Great value on Bowyer. Bowyer's avg. the last 9 races here is 14th, McMurray is 19th. 33 finished 15 spots higher in the spring race. McMurray looked a lot better in happy hour practice, but Bowyer was better in P2. You can't over react to a couple laps, books and players often due and that creates value opportunity.
Hornish +100 over Sadler-scraping bottom of the barrel here. But again I like the no juice option. This is maybe Sam's best track, which isn't saying a lot with an average finish of 21st with 1 top 10. But Sadler has the worst avg. finish the last 9 of what I'd consider "regular" full time drivers at 30.8.
Logano -120 over Reutimann-keep riding the streaking Logano, his 4th last week now gives him 6 top 10s in the last 9. He's getting the feel for the Cup cars, and Zippy is making them better throughout the race. Looks good in practice, too.
Harvick +100 over Kyle-Happy with an avg. finish of 12th the last 9 trips here, Kyle 16th. Harvick top 5 in Happy Hour, Rowdy 32nd. Harvick still believes he's in the championship hunt if he can pull off a win, which he's done twice here. I'd say that's worth a juice free shot.
Biffle +100 over Kurt-very similar results here, but I'm fading Kurt's current form as he's managed only 1 top 10 in the Chase and has several finishes between 20-30. Again following the year long plan which has been working, don't pay the man extra vig if don't have to.
That's it for me. GL to everyone today
YTD: 84-60, plus 21.75 units
On to the desert this week. I hate this track. The flat milers just do nothing for me, and this one is crooked. With sky blue walls. Anyway, still money to be made. I'll try my hand at these:
Bowyer +130 over McMurray-this line just rather baffles me. Great value on Bowyer. Bowyer's avg. the last 9 races here is 14th, McMurray is 19th. 33 finished 15 spots higher in the spring race. McMurray looked a lot better in happy hour practice, but Bowyer was better in P2. You can't over react to a couple laps, books and players often due and that creates value opportunity.
Hornish +100 over Sadler-scraping bottom of the barrel here. But again I like the no juice option. This is maybe Sam's best track, which isn't saying a lot with an average finish of 21st with 1 top 10. But Sadler has the worst avg. finish the last 9 of what I'd consider "regular" full time drivers at 30.8.
Logano -120 over Reutimann-keep riding the streaking Logano, his 4th last week now gives him 6 top 10s in the last 9. He's getting the feel for the Cup cars, and Zippy is making them better throughout the race. Looks good in practice, too.
Harvick +100 over Kyle-Happy with an avg. finish of 12th the last 9 trips here, Kyle 16th. Harvick top 5 in Happy Hour, Rowdy 32nd. Harvick still believes he's in the championship hunt if he can pull off a win, which he's done twice here. I'd say that's worth a juice free shot.
Biffle +100 over Kurt-very similar results here, but I'm fading Kurt's current form as he's managed only 1 top 10 in the Chase and has several finishes between 20-30. Again following the year long plan which has been working, don't pay the man extra vig if don't have to.
That's it for me. GL to everyone today
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