Posted:
#1
'10-11 NBA: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB: 8-1 (88.9%) +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P: 11-4 (73.3%) +7.00u
'10-11 MLB: 97-66 (59.8%) +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P: 9-3 (75.0%) +9.22u
'11-12 NCAAF: 16-21 (43.2%) -7.40u
'11-12 NCAAF-P: 9-6 (60.0%) +1.65u
'11-12 NFL: 42-35-1 (54.5%) +5.05u
'11-12 NFL-P: 5-5 (50.0%) -0.40u
'11-12 NCAAB: 7-2 (77.8%) +4.80u
'11-12 NBA: 51-48-1 (52.0%) +1.18u
10:35 EST - Miami Heat @ Portland Trailblazers Under 198 (-110)
Not feeling well tonight so I'm going to keep my write-up short and sweet. Bosh will be out for tonight's game but Vegas didn't adjust the total to account for his absence. I think that's a huge mistake. Bosh will likely be replaced by Haslem so let's take a quick look at Miami's offensive and defensive efficiency when these plays are on/off the court. Offensive rating when Bosh is on the court: +3.5. Offensive rating when Haslem is on the court: -6.0. Defensive rating when Bosh is on the court: -0.5. Defensive rating when Haslem is on the court: -3.5. Run those numbers and you find the Heat offensive is 9.5 points per 100 points worse and their defense allows 3 points less per 100 points with Haslem on the floor instead of Bosh. These teams will have approximately 94 possessions tonight so this means Bosh's absence is worth about 11.5 points on the total. Vegas didn't move it one point. Talk about value! In addition to this, both teams are top 10 in the league in overall defense. In particular, both teams are top 5 in "transition defense". Portland is on a back to back coming from altitude in Denver, so the last thing they want to do is get into a running match against a Miami team playing their first game since the break. Look for Portland to slow this down into a half court game with both teams relying on their size in the paint to force outside shots (Portland 9th best at defending the rim at 60.6 eFG% and Miami is #1 at 56.4%) This is a statement game for the Blazers defending RIP City so expect maximum effort in this national TV game. Should be a great game to watch.
0
greatest game to watch in 2011, i mean 12
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