NY Knicks: current line 31.5 Over -105 (Juice varies from +100 to -120)
Last years NYK closing line 33.5 Under-120
Last years NYK regular season record: 32-50 (20-21h 12-29a)
Key Additions: Danillo Gallinari (In a way)/Darko Milicic/Jordan Hill/Toney Douglas
Key Losses: Quentin Richardson
I think this year’s Big Apple team is going to surprise some people by their record by mid-season (much like last year). In the 2nd year of the Donnie Walsh/Mike D’Antoni realm the Knicks will be playing 5 players who are in a contract year including both lil’ Nate Robinson and David Lee who both signed 1 year deals in the off-season. Even though having that many players playing for contracts can lead to some selfish play, I believe that D’Antoni’s system negates some of the selfish tendencies that develop among players when playing for a contract in a more conventional offensive system. Thus leaving us with a team that we know has all the reasons in the world (MILLIONS & MILLIONS of future dollars in contracts) to give a supreme effort in as many games as is possible for a professional team in an NBA season. The Knicks finish the 2010 season with 16 of their last 23 games on the road….this is where I predict we will be doing the majority of our gambling, as we will need them to pick up a few games (although I think we will be well ahead of schedule) here at a time where they will most likely be running out of gas.
With that said…the Knicks get a healthy start this year with a full off-season and preseason with the under-rated Al Harrington and Danillo Gallinari who missed most of his rookie season due to a back injury.
After the Knicks started roughly, losing approximately 17 of their first 28 games last season they pulled to a respectable 21-25 by mid year. This included starting the season with the human black hole: Zach Randolph, then trading him for essentially nothing when Cuttino Mobley was found to have a heart disease after acquiring him. Also who can forget that the Starbury situation was held over the Knicks (D’Antoni‘s) heads for the majority of the season before finally agreeing to a buy-out. Once Al Harrington learned the system after being brought in for Jamal Crawford, the Knicks had a nice stretch before running out of gas late and finishing with 32 wins.
What I know is that D’Antoni loves to win and is a GREAT regular season coach. He is in an excellent position this year because with no big expectations and everyone looking ahead to next year’s off-season possible additions (Lebron/Wade/Bosh/Dirk?) D’Antoni will be happy to play a 7-8 man rotation (as he loves to do) and has no reason to do anything but win as Isiah Thomas traded the Knicks 2010 1st round draft pick away several years ago to get Marbury. If the Knicks and Walsh/D’Antoni have any possible chance to land a Lebron/Wade/Bosh/Dirk type of player they will need to show some additional improvement from last season and enough young talent to lure such a player to Manhattan.
Chris Duhon played a very solid pre-all star campaign last season in his first year learning the 7 seconds or less system before having his numbers dip considerably after the all star break. I look for him to improve with a full year under his belt and the chance to land another multi-year contract.
With so many 1 year contracts or players in their final year (team option) D’Antoni has free reign to burn his best players up (minutes wise). Those who respond and perform well he can keep and those that don’t he won’t have to see next year. All this should translate into more wins as the Knicks fly under the radar. I see a 7/8 man rotation of Duhon/Chandler/Lee/Harrington/Jeffries/Lil Nate/Gallinari and either Larry Hughes or Toney Douglas filling the last spot with occasional minutes being given to Darko for defensive stretches and Jordan Hill to learn the NBA.
While the Knicks division is a tough one with the likes of the Celtics and a newly vamped Raptors team, they also get a rebuilding Nets team to play 4 times and the 76’s with a new coach/system who are playing without a true point guard after losing Andre Miller to free agency.
Look for the Knicks to get a leg up on surpassing a 31.5 game win total from December 18th-Jan 28th. During this time they will play 13 out of 20 games at home with their 7 road foes consisting of Detroit (twice)/New Jersey/Atlanta/Houston/Oklahoma City/Philly…all possible winnable road games with the exception of Atlanta.
Even with what I would consider a soft preseason schedule (Nets 3 times/Macabbi TelAviv/76’s/Celtics 2 times) the Knicks did finish 5-2 allowing D’Antoni to set the stage for a winning mindset going into the start of the upcoming season. We aren’t trying to set the world on fire here. We don’t even have to make the playoffs to win this wager comfortably. We just have to keep from being the dregs of the league. I firmly believe the Knicks possess the young athletic talent, a brilliant coaching mind, a top notch front office, and a early season home-biased schedule to win this bet.
2 Star New York Knicks OVER 31.5
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