Posted:
#1
'10-11 NBA: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB: 8-1 (88.9%) +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P: 11-4 (73.3%) +7.00u
'10-11 MLB: 97-66 (59.8%) +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P: 9-3 (75.0%) +9.22u
'11-12 NCAAF: 16-21 (43.2%) -7.40u
'11-12 NCAAF-P: 9-6 (60.0%) +1.65u
'11-12 NFL: 42-35-1 (54.5%) +5.05u
'11-12 NFL-P: 5-5 (50.0%) -0.40u
'11-12 NCAAB: 9-3 (75.0%) +5.70u
'11-12 NCAAB-P: 5-3 (62.5%) +1.60u
'11-12 NBA: 77-80 (49.0%) -13.28u
'11-12 MLB: 3-1 (75.0%) +1.68u
'11-12 NBA-P: 13-14-1 (48.8%) -1.40u
8:05 EST - Philadelphia 76ers ML (+305)
I use a Boston-based local so I'm catching a generous line on the 76ers, although I would have leaned this way and probably taken this team anywhere north of +260. This series has been full of games where you were left scratching your head. I think you'll see a lot of Celtics fans scratching their heads after this one. Everyone wants to believe that this is the same Celtic team of old but that's just not true. Allen is playing on one leg and has been ineffective all post-season. KG has had some stellar performances but I think he may have blown his wad a little too early. In the last game he didn't score a single point in the paint. For a 4/5 position player, to attempt all your shots from the top of the key and beyond is a little puzzling. I think that stems from a decline in energy and wind. His mind might be telling him he's still got it, but his body knows he doesn't. Rondo is still Rondo but his scoring ability is always in question. And Pierce is still Pierce. I'm not confident that the Celtics will find enough offense tonight against a Philadelphia team that is playing with a ton of self-belief after beating the #1 seed Bulls and taking the #4 seed Celtics to a 7th game. They're young and ambitious and if they get a transition game going tonight, they can easily run away with this game. I can understand that a lot of gamblers are backing the Celtics because they believe the NBA wants them to win. I'm not so sure about that. The Celtics don't stand a chance against the power house offenses of the Western Conference. The only team that really should represent the East - that can make a series out of the NBA Championship and draw the largest TV market is the Miami Heat. The Celtics can give the Heat trouble, but Miami has owned Philadelphia and the 76ers are an easier match-up for them. If I were David Stern trying to fix the playoffs, I'd want to make the next series as easy as possible for the Heat to give them the best chance of taking on the winner of the West. Just food for thought for all you believers in the fix. Ultimately, that's not why I'm making this bet. I think the 76ers push the pace early to try and get the Celtics winded. If Garnett has to focus most of his energy on defense, the Celtics won't have many options left to keep up offensively. The value is all on the 76ers and I'm a value investor at heart. Pains me to say this as a life-long Celtics fan, but the 76ers will win this game and win it comfortably. This will not be a popular bet but fuck the spread - it's game 7 - the winner will cover either way.
'11-12 NBA-P: 13-14-1 (48.8%) -1.40u
8:05 EST - Philadelphia 76ers ML (+305)
I use a Boston-based local so I'm catching a generous line on the 76ers, although I would have leaned this way and probably taken this team anywhere north of +260. This series has been full of games where you were left scratching your head. I think you'll see a lot of Celtics fans scratching their heads after this one. Everyone wants to believe that this is the same Celtic team of old but that's just not true. Allen is playing on one leg and has been ineffective all post-season. KG has had some stellar performances but I think he may have blown his wad a little too early. In the last game he didn't score a single point in the paint. For a 4/5 position player, to attempt all your shots from the top of the key and beyond is a little puzzling. I think that stems from a decline in energy and wind. His mind might be telling him he's still got it, but his body knows he doesn't. Rondo is still Rondo but his scoring ability is always in question. And Pierce is still Pierce. I'm not confident that the Celtics will find enough offense tonight against a Philadelphia team that is playing with a ton of self-belief after beating the #1 seed Bulls and taking the #4 seed Celtics to a 7th game. They're young and ambitious and if they get a transition game going tonight, they can easily run away with this game. I can understand that a lot of gamblers are backing the Celtics because they believe the NBA wants them to win. I'm not so sure about that. The Celtics don't stand a chance against the power house offenses of the Western Conference. The only team that really should represent the East - that can make a series out of the NBA Championship and draw the largest TV market is the Miami Heat. The Celtics can give the Heat trouble, but Miami has owned Philadelphia and the 76ers are an easier match-up for them. If I were David Stern trying to fix the playoffs, I'd want to make the next series as easy as possible for the Heat to give them the best chance of taking on the winner of the West. Just food for thought for all you believers in the fix. Ultimately, that's not why I'm making this bet. I think the 76ers push the pace early to try and get the Celtics winded. If Garnett has to focus most of his energy on defense, the Celtics won't have many options left to keep up offensively. The value is all on the 76ers and I'm a value investor at heart. Pains me to say this as a life-long Celtics fan, but the 76ers will win this game and win it comfortably. This will not be a popular bet but fuck the spread - it's game 7 - the winner will cover either way.
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