Posted:
#1
Out of every NBA team I have not had any success in capping this team. I suspect I may not be the only one and hopefully this creates for great discussion maybe a friendly venting thread for Clippers backers who haven't had the best of luck. Anyways let's get to it why are the Clippers 20-30 ATS? To better illustrate I will use some mostly recent games as reference.
01/11/15 vs Miami Heat -10
The Clippers against the lowly Heat the difference in power rankings alone this was a sure cover! Wrong. In fact not only did they fail to cover the 10 point spread they lost the game outright by that margin. Now you may be saying oh but the scouts had no idea who was that Whiteside guy plus it was the second of a b2b. While this is true they were at home for both games and the game prior was a blow out where no one played more than 35 minutes. Also I'm pretty sure there wasn't much Whiteside could have done during his usual 20 minutes of game time had he played during the first matchup when they annihilated Miami.
01/28/15 @ Utah -6.5
A 6.5 point spread against the lowly Jazz. They killed Phoenix 2 games ago this has to be POTY right here. Well let's just say half way through the 3rd their home commentary mentioned how Doc Rivers has said before that his team shows up when they need to. If you watch Clippers home broadcasts you've probably heard this often while experiencing hypertension for betting on that 10 point Clippers spread.
02/02/15 @ Brooklyn -8.5
The Clippers were 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as 5+ point favorites going into this game. Coming off a big win over San Antonio one would think the Clippers have found their mojo. Not only did they fail to cover again putting them at 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as 5+ point favorites. They lost to the Nets at home! A Nets team that was 1-7 ATS at home in their last 8 going into this game.
By now you should have already realized the trend here. Motivation. Doc Rivers is perfectly content with his squad not playing at 100%. Watch a regular Clippers game. He does not bench players for poor play and/or lack of energy. All is great in Clipper land when they are shooting 60% and not allowing their opponent to get anything easy. But when they are building a house and not getting back on defense you can kiss your Clippers spread play goodbye.
They didn't show up for the Cavs game tonight nor did they show up to play the Pelicans. Realistically I understand losing to the Cavs but the Pelicans? Brooklyn? Before you wager on the next Clippers spread or even ML ask yourself this. Will the Clippers show up tonight? Should I fade them tonight? They have ATS wins against San Antonio, Dallas, and Portland just to name a few. They can also shoot 60% on any given night more frequently than other teams. We have seen them easily beat up on weaker teams. We have also seen them lose to Brooklyn after beating them by 39 just a week prior. Unless it's a L.A. vs L.A. matchup at Staples you can spend hours capping a Clippers game and accomplish virtually the same just by flipping a coin and going with a predetermined outcome.
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