Advance bettors only: Theory behind middling NBA totals

Question

Looking for thoughts, opinions and theories in regards to middle betting NBA totals.

I'm a heavy NCAA Football bettor. +$10.5k this season (mostly thanks to MEGALOCKS (you da man)). Brand new to betting NBA, as wells as betting middles. What can I say? I'm an action junkie degenerate.

In the past 2 nights, I middled 3 totals.
Lost all 3. One game by 1 point, one game by 3 points, one game was a total whiff, as it went into overtime.

Total loss, $62
Total potential win was roughly $3600

So, my question is this: is middling totals a waste of time, energy and money? I understand that this strategy CAN be profitable, I just want thoughts and opinions on whether or not it is sustainable and if it is a preferred by the vets of the industry.

On a final note, I look to middle a total that has moved at least 10 points minimum. Is this enough?

All feedback is appreciated, unless you don't know what a middle is, or if you lose money. You fools need not apply ??

TripleD31 · Answer

Looking for thoughts, opinions and theories in regards to middle betting NBA totals.

I'm a heavy NCAA Football bettor. +$10.5k this season (mostly thanks to MEGALOCKS (you da man)). Brand new to betting NBA, as wells as betting middles. What can I say? I'm an action junkie degenerate.

In the past 2 nights, I middled 3 totals.
Lost all 3. One game by 1 point, one game by 3 points, one game was a total whiff, as it went into overtime.

Total loss, $62
Total potential win was roughly $3600

So, my question is this: is middling totals a waste of time, energy and money? I understand that this strategy CAN be profitable, I just want thoughts and opinions on whether or not it is sustainable and if it is a preferred by the vets of the industry.

On a final note, I look to middle a total that has moved at least 10 points minimum. Is this enough?

All feedback is appreciated, unless you don't know what a middle is, or if you lose money. You fools need not apply ??

Enjoi · Answer

The only time I would ever take a middle in an NBA game is if I&#x27;m getting at least 5 possessions - so that would be around 10 - 15 points.

Enjoi · Answer

Otherwise it&#x27;s a -EV move

naesiy · Answer

You&#x27;re new to betting NBA?  Here&#x27;s the best advice I can give you.  Don&#x27;t.  Stick with CFB.  Unless you are willing to lose for several years first.  NBA is sick.

Turbo85 · Answer

Its not a waste of time, but I think you have a better chance of middling say a 4Q bet. You just need to know when to pull the trigger. Let me give you an example.

I live play everything, I know what the odds are at every total in every game. I built a spreadsheet for it. Now, its just numbers, its not predictability, but its note worthy.

Let me give you an example.

Tonights Knicks game total started at 52.5, initial lean was under. The pace of the start of the 4Q was fast, shots falling every which way. The LIVE BET number ran as high as 60.5. There's a lot to predict going on in an NBA game come 4Q, so its hard to just say how do I take it here. Well, if it goes from 52.5 to 57.5 (5total points from where VEGAS set the line to gain the most profit, I say that is a HAMMER. So your lean was UNDER, take UNDER for 57.5 Points.

Sure enough they teams cooled down. You have to take advantage of that swing. Your original lean was incorrect, and now the game is close. Which means its probably going to go OVER the original number. Now, since this is a highly contested match, they are probably going to shoot free throws and extend the game as the teams are close. If you can get within a point or two of the original line. Granted you are at 57.5 on your Under. Say 53.5, go ahead and grab the OVER 53.5 there. Now you have a 4 point swing and you have guaranteed yourself a chance to middle in a smaller window, yes... However, this is a great window to be in, in a 4th quarter bet. If you can hit these middles at a 1/3 shot, you are making 2 UNITS on the wins and loosing (.2 UNITS on the losses)

That puts you at +1.8 Units. If you go 1-2 on straight bets you are down -2.3 Units. If may be more time consuming to get a win, but why would you do it any differently. I would rather hedge completely or give myself 1 point on something I am beginning to not trust, then take hard losses. There's always the next bet.

Advance bettors only: Theory behind middling NBA totals

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