Hey, so I've developed an algorithm that predicts NBA scores and will consistently beat the closing line, I'm comfortably up so far this season, playing about 70% of games. We all know b*llsh*t is a dime a dozen on sites like this, so just for fun I'll post 10 days worth of lines and keep a running tally of wins/CLV. I'll post lines for every game before the Vegas lines come out, and just to make things simple, we'll say that any game that opens at 3 pt difference (for spread and O/U) will be bet at the opening line, and I'll use that to tally wins/CLV.
Obviously, with sports betting, anybody who ever "guarantees" winning picks is either a liar or a fool, and there will be down days. But I will say that I'm confident at the end of 10 days, I'll be ahead.
If you decide to bet using these, first, that's on your own risk. Being right on the games isn't always a guarantee of long term success if you don't bet using proper risk management. The lines are entirely data driven, using both public stats and a few I created using different combinations of public stats I don't have any inside knowledge and I don't even really look at the matchups. That's all done in the algorithm, I just punch in the teams and it spits out the numbers. It does account for home court advantage in both the spread and the O/U so don't factor it in. The only two factors outside the algoirthm I look at before placing a bet are injuries and back-to-back scheduling, as the algorithm doesn't account for those (although if the injured player is out for maybe 6-7 games the added/lost value will start to be reflected). It's meant to be a pure numbers analysis, asking the question "what would we expect the score to be if the expected version of Team A played the expected version of Team B?".
For tomorrow's lines, here's what I've got, listed by favorite:
Bkn @ Orl: Bkn -1.5/210
Wsh @ Cle: Wash -2/215
Det @ Hou: Hou -8/215
Tor @ Bos: Bos -2.5/208
Mil @ NYK: NYK -4/213
Dal @ Chi: -4/209
OKC @ NOP: NOP -1/210
Cha @ Mem: Cha -3/223
Sac @ SAS: SAS -1/217
Ind @ Den: Den -2.5/212
Por @ Phx: PHX -2/220
Min @ GS: GS -11/218
Mia @ LAL: Mia -1.5/217