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Anyone just flat betting overs

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Posted: #1
Its the grind of the season and noone is playing defense....Under will eventually hit but not until late in the season when there is meaningful games....Every day for the past month seems like overs win the day.  its crazy...the high scoring games..
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Posted: #2

Yes. The O/U in the past few weeks have been so hard to cap. Lots of overs but at the same time you never know when a team just decides not to try.

 
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Posted: #3

Quote Originally Posted by Phillip2002:

Yes. The O/U in the past few weeks have been so hard to cap. Lots of overs but at the same time you never know when a team just decides not to try.

 

So many 70+ point quarters.....Not sure how anyone can take an under...If an under does hit its by a few points....You rarely see games under 200 point nowadays.....Zero value taking an under....I would have a full head of grey hair by now if I played unders.....

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Posted: #4
I had under on both the games that went over in the final min, smh!! 
It’s so bad.. everything looked good when Q4 start! 
 
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Posted: #5

Quote Originally Posted by R_Rocks90:

I had under on both the games that went over in the final min, smh!! It’s so bad.. everything looked good when Q4 start!

 

You are never out of it with an Over.......

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Posted: #6
Now imagine this 76ers game looks like a sure over of 228.5, now would be so crazy if it goes under from this point 
 
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Posted: #7

Quote Originally Posted by R_Rocks90:

Now imagine this 76ers game looks like a sure over of 228.5, now would be so crazy if it goes under from this point
 

 

Its a lock to go over....9 minutes left...Zero chance they score less than 30 points..

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Posted: #8
As crazy as it sounds but these days, I only play unders because that's where the value is.....always. 

I tend to wait until the public gets their fix and then I pick off the bad numbers from which my math model projects. If a the public steams a game 4-5 points from the original line and my model likes it, I try to dig into it more and see if it's worth betting. 

It's excruciating in today's NBA of 70 point quarters, unlimited fouls and what not but I found something that's worked for me and allowed me to be profitable. 

It's also made things easier and that I don't necessarily even have to be an originator. If I like an over I have to move first and catch it at 9-10 am EST. Even if I wait out a line, because the public is betting so many overs I can find some book giving me value on the under. 
 
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Posted: #9

Quote Originally Posted by Rahminatti:

As crazy as it sounds but these days, I only play unders because that's where the value is.....always. I tend to wait until the public gets their fix and then I pick off the bad numbers from which my math model projects. If a the public steams a game 4-5 points from the original line and my model likes it, I try to dig into it more and see if it's worth betting. It's excruciating in today's NBA of 70 point quarters, unlimited fouls and what not but I found something that's worked for me and allowed me to be profitable. It's also made things easier and that I don't necessarily even have to be an originator. If I like an over I have to move first and catch it at 9-10 am EST. Even if I wait out a line, because the public is betting so many overs I can find some book giving me value on the under.

 

Hornets vs Wizards game....Wizards are by 15 with 3 minutes to go..Instead of running clock..right out of the timeout Wizard take a shot within 1 second and get fouled...Then off a defensive rebound...they shoot a 3 within 5 seconds and make it  up 16 with 2:30 left in the game instead of slowing it down and running clock....Its street ball right now...

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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by davemsh:

 

 

Its a lock to go over....9 minutes left...Zero chance they score less than 30 points..


22 pts under 7 min! 
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by davemsh:

 

Hornets vs Wizards game....Wizards are by 15 with 3 minutes to go..Instead of running clock..right out of the timeout Wizard take a shot within 1 second and get fouled...Then off a defensive rebound...they shoot a 3 within 5 seconds and make it  up 16 with 2:30 left in the game instead of slowing it down and running clock....Its street ball right now...



My model projected a total of 230. Hornets were playing 3 in 4 nights so I didn't want to play. I saw some steam to the under 227.5 and I think at 226.5 if I were still playing overs I would have taken a bite on that and the first half over. I chose to pass and wanted no parts of the game.

A lot of these lines are lined properly. In the pro sports, you flat out don't have an edge on most of these games. With all the 3 point shooting there's just a lot more volatility. I've actually had to completely change my strategy this year. I'm not playing sides or first half totals unless I see a gigantic edge. One of my biggest edges this week was the Portland Trailblazers +5. Oddsmakers opened that line at like 1-2....the Harden news pushed it to 5 and I took a bite. 
 
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Posted: #12

I guess what I'm try to say is the days where a team is up big in the 4th used to be an auto under quarter....as teams use to just slow it down andiron clock..Now its run and gun till the end...

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Posted: #13
Here comes another over, talking about Celtics game.
31 needed from 5 min and they score 17 pts in 2 min lol 
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by R_Rocks90:

Here comes another over, talking about Celtics game.
31 needed from 5 min and they score 17 pts in 2 min lol 


This is why you always get the best of the number

This game landed at 223


I played the under 225 in this game and the last few minutes were certainly frustrating to watch, you have to know that these games are going to fall right in line with the number. It's all math based....and then you have a whole market of people betting into these numbers to shape them. If you had the opening number of 222 and bet the over you won. If you bet the closing number of under 224.5 or 225 you won. 

The best sports bettors in the world only hit 55-60% of their wagers for a reason. This game is not for the weak. You're looking for small edges and hope to capitalize over time.


 
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Posted: #15
Another street nba display by Kings.. that game should never have gone over!! Smh 
 
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Posted: #16

Just flat bet all the over every day....Wake up the next morning and your account is bigger....

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Posted: #17

Man..with all these overs hitting.. davidsss will have to take out a 2nd mortgage on his house or will end up like asiangamblez, beting his wife..

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Posted: #18

If you bet on Under these days you are betting against yourself, if you think that game could go under then simply dont bet it and bet all the other games for easy overs 

 
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Posted: #19
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Posted: #20
3-1 over so far, still 3 games to go! 
 
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Posted: #21
Everyone here knows who I am. I post my plays and updated it everyday. I play a lot of Under. I hear everyone in this thread talking about all the Over games. Yes there has been a lot of Over. I try to stay away from Over games. Main reason is playing on a Under game you winning from tip off to the games ends if you are the Under. Here is my record for the year. I will admit that I have not played all Under. But you all know I play more Under than Over
1st hf
149-119 ats +30
2nd hf 
189-181 ats +8
Ful gm
150-130 ats +20
POD
25-31 ats -5
                +53
 
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Posted: #22
5-2 over tonight!! 
Tomorrow I think we see more under than over!
 
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Posted: #23
With 10 games tonight, I will be surprised if we see more than 4 games going over! 
 
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Posted: #24
7-1 under!! lol
2 games left, both game gonna go over!! Very easy overs 
So 7-3 under today. Finally under bettors winning some games 
 
 
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