Anyone still awake? Im capping the game and need some fresh point of views

Hey guys,

 I am working on capping this game and it's giving me more trouble than any other playoff game so far. These are the questions I am still fighting myself with:

-During game 5, I saw the psychological difference between the two teams. Mavs had their hearts in it and were gleaming with confidence. The Heat just looked defeated in those final minute. It almost seemed like they just knew they weren't going to close and gave up.

-Even though the heat looked like they were giving up, they had a 4 point lead with only 4:30 left. They CAN keep up with the mavs in the fourth if it weren't for this psychological barrier. Does the pressure of losing everything tomorrow force them into changing their attitude?

-I thought the loss in game 4/Lebrons terrible performance would be enough motivation for the heat to come out on fire in game 5.. but it didnt. They still seemed to play in autopilot mode and not fully engage themselves in it. Will having their backs against the wall FINALLY be what motivates them to play harder?

-While watching the Mavs superior team play/confidence/motivation/momentum in game 5... I told myself that I would bet on them for sure in game 6. I am HUGE on the psychological side of the game and the Mavs have a clear advantage in that area.

BUT when I sat down to start capping and noticed the line was at +6 AND more than 75% of the public were on the mavs.... it sent huge red flags up.

This reminds me of earlier in the playoffs when the Hawks were playing Orlando and were like 9 point dogs on the same day that the pacers were like 10 point dogs to the Bulls. Both dogs had played great against their opponents during the previous game. ALL of the the public were all over those dogs and so were all the people here on covers. I unfortunately took the bait and lost on both game along with everyone else in the world lol. I REALLY hate repeating mistakes that I should have learned from..

People are making the argument that the books did made this huge line because they "knew" that large amounts of the public would still be betting Miami just because they are Miami. Now while I understand the thought process one would have while thinking this.... There is no way its true. Do you really think that the books had no idea that this many people would bet on the inflated mavs line? They ALWAYS know what they are doing it.

What sucks is that I normally never care about this kind of stuff... but this one is just too big for me to ignore.

What do you guys think? I have been working on capping this game all day and my mind is just getting tired lol. I need some a fresh point of view.

Please explain why you feel the way you do. I'm not looking for "take the mavs ML" lol.

Thanks in advance guys! Take care

Btw these are just the problems I'm still having trouble with. I have pretty much figured out where I stand with most other aspects of the game.

I am a Fade the Public guy.  Anything over 70% in a primetime game, I always go against the public, just because whenever I don't I get burned. EVERY time.  Now, IF you are not one to make bets based on what everyone else is betting than you should consider a few things (among others).

(OH BTW I have not bet on an NBA game all season.  I really don't bet the NBA. I was just curious on how the money was moving for game 6 so I checked in on covers and happened to read your post).  GOOD LUCK BRO! 

Nice to see somebody giving this some serious consideration, and not just jump on the "MAVS IS THE POY" bandwagon...

Im not saying that the mavs wont win, im just saying that it is no where near a lock (given that such a thing exists)..

What the game (and there series) really comes down to is if LBJ decides to get his shit together and play.. Theres really not much more to it. Im not buying the "mavs are the better team" bs. Miami has been in all the games so far, and should've been up 3-2 (in my oppinion) and this has been accomplished with James playing up to only 50-60% of his potential. If he finally gets his shit together the heat will crush the mavs, if he doesnt mavs wins it straight up..

I've decided not to wager on tonights game, but if lebron does show up and heat get the W thereby, i will for sure be on them BIG in gm7..

GL with what ever you decide to do

I'm still awake, in fact i've been awake all night on here. I can tell you that there is only one play everybody should be making tomorrow-DALLAS MAVERICKS +5.5

Cuban's silence says it all, no pun intended.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts on the game with me. It actually helped a lot getting a second opinion. Sometimes just bouncing thoughts off someone helps a lot with this decision process.

I just finished my notes and started my write-up. I  think I'm going to get some sleep though and just attack it in the morning. Hopefully with some rest I will be able to organize my thoughts a little better.

Thanks again for your help

Looks like amphetamine abuse to me. 

Thanks man! Yeah, I try not to jump into any bet without thinking about everything as thoroughly as i can.

I also agree that a lot hinges on LBJ. He has the talent to bounce back and take control of tomorrows game. Its just he has that damn psychological block going on. Which is making him not shoot the ball with confidence. Now I just have to figure out if I think he can get over it by tomorrow.. On the plus side, he will be at home and have his back against the wall... on the other side, I'm starting to think that if he was able to bounce back.. he would have already though..

hmmmm Like I said in my last post.. I think I'm just going to sleep on it. I finished my notes so I'm all ready to do my write-up after I make up my mind lol.

Thanks for the help man, See you tomorrow!

haha nope. I dont even drink. Its too hard to be productive while getting fuked up on a regular basis. The only reason that I'm even up this late is because my fiance is working on a project for school and I feel bad going to sleep before her lol. I figured I would just work on this some more.

Take care man and good luck tomorrow.

Just because public on this website is on Dallas, doesn't mean EVERYONE is doing the same outside of this website. People who are using real personal bookies and people betting at casino are the real betters.

My thoughts...

Dallas+6 is just right.

Why?

First. Because everyone expects Miami to win. Setting it at 1-5 would not mean much for these Heat backers. We all know Dallas want to close this series out tonight. Do you think Dallas will give up if Miami leads 3 points and there's still 5 seconds on the clock? One foul and two fts by the Heat would easily make it 5 points. How about at 4 points? Mavs will still foul unless the clock reads 0. These guys are desperate to win the Championship and will not stop until the buzzer sounds. Putting it at Miami-4.5 would make the same guys who lost money at game 5 to pound Miami hard! In this playoffs only the best cappers change sides every now and then, most bettors only pick one side starting game 1 and let it ride hoping that their team would win. Remember that in Game 5 almost 80-90% of bettors picked Miami ML and they got burned. Vegas do not want them to recover easily and since they would most certainly side with Miami again they can go -6 or choose the ML via a large juice.

Second. Dallas has not yet proven that they can win in Miami. They won in game 2 but not as convincingly as bettors would hope to in order to side with Dallas. Remember that if that remarkable comeback did not happen then Miami could have easily won that game by double digits making that -6 line "look like an easy cover".

Third. The disappearance of Lebron in the 4th yet Miami still only lost by single digits on the road. What if he explodes tonight? Then that 6 can easily be covered.

Well those are just some things I've observed. Hopefully, me defending the +6 that Dallas is getting is not because I'm taking Dallas tonight.

I think this goes down the wire with Dirk hitting the winning shot. BOL to whatever you choose.

LETS GO DALLAS!

Thanks for writing good stuffs in here --Enjoys reading your reasons and insights...

GO MAVS!...just covering 5!

I'm actually Devil's advocate here, I would lean more towards the Heat in this one but it's a tough call with the line. 

bet the big 3 and dont think twice.

One thing I do think of is if Miami does have a decent lead going into the 4th I think they can grab it this time - I think Dallas could lay back with the officiating knowing tonight may not be their night and pack it in early for Game 7... sure sounds like last year doesn't it?

Hi CX, I think the biggest problem when u cap the final is.....miami heat is the better team and hard to bet against them. So, u take the heat every gm so far in the final.

I'm a bit different, I do think miami is the better team but dallas have better preparation and I bet them the last few gms. Fading the public with heavy numbers re almost a no-brainer to me. And this gm I'll follow the trend once again.

CT & I both heavy lean on the FG under. That's actually the first bet I've made. Then, my second bet is Dallas 1Q + 2. ( The away team have cover every 1Q so far in the final, it works for me so far and I'm jumping on the boat once again )

However, I don't think dallas will win this gm but I also hate to lay my money on the heat ML ( -250 is not my style ) and -6 is also v uncomfortable for me. So, as I think dallas will win the 1Q and hopefully I can get a live bet on miami -1 to + 3.5.

I've a series bet on the Mavs & my heart is on Dirk & Co. But my mind tells me miami will win this gm.

BOL tonite, I've to go to a dog show now but will be around tonite to do the live betting with u guys. Have fun.

I think the Heat did come out with fire and played well, both teams just shot incredibly well.  Dallas flat out scored them.  I think the Heat win tonight, but under is the play.  Miami is very battled tested as they went through an unprecedented year of scrutiny and hard times (which is funny for a 58 win team).  I agree that psychology does come to play in NBA, but its mainly during regular season.  At this point both teams are locked in and fully believe they can beat each other.  Yes, Miami did take lead with 5 minutes to play, but when a team comes from behind to make a run, it takes a lot out of them.  I think they were fatigued more than anything at the end leading to bad defense, not that they were accepting losing.  I am on Mavs for the series, but I don't believe they have the mental edge on them.  Tonight will come down to who plays better.  I hope the Mavs win but if it comes down to minus 4, I might have to take Miami small.  But I really like the under.  I think if you handicap the Heat as the better team and the play, then go with it,  don't overthink the team psyche department, which is easy to do in a highly scrutinized series with long layoffs in between games where every aspect is over analyzed.    GL 

you are another one of these guys that has been hypnotized or brainwashed or whatever they did to you to think that miami is the better team!!...miaimi iis NOT the better team sir....who told you this...seems like every body on this site has been brainwashed into thinking "miami is the better team"..so one must bet on them every game and they will make $$$....WRONG!!!......they are not the better team....how do you come up with that!........and after tonite when miami loses their fourth out of six, including two at home, perhaps you will see through the smoke screen someone has put in front of you and you will say.... perhaaps miami was NOT the better team!...hmmmmm!???...something to think about.

Personally I don't care on what size the public $$ is going, what experts think ... I just go with what I am able to handicap and see.

Thanks everyone. Your views actually helped me a lot. I think I have just been over thinking this one a bit. I have capped the game and I am just going to trust my self again. So far doing it this way hasn't steered me wrong.

I'm going to finish my write-up now so I can get it posted. Let me know what you think.

Take care and thanks again for your help everyone