Posted:
#1
This will be my first of a series of regular season win total plays I will be posting over the next few days on the 2010 NBA Season.
All plays will be rated between 1-4 stars.
Over the past 5 years I have been fortunate enough to profit every season on these....I hope that continues this season.
I will not be giving a write-up for every team in the league but instead just on those that I will be making an official play on.
2010 Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks:
current line 44.5 Over -115 (Juice varies from -115 to -130)
Last years Hawks closing line 38.5 Under -125
Last years Hawks regular season record: 47-35 (31-10h 16-25a)
Key Additions: Jamal Crawford/Jeff Teague/Joe Smith
Key Losses: Flip Murray. Acie Law and Speedy Claxton didn’t play much.
So the first thing I look at here is the drastic 6 game jump (from 38.5 with the UNDER juiced last year to 44.5 with the OVER juiced this year) in just one year. 6 games is a HUGE jump for a team that was lined near the .500 mark last year. This is a little over a 7% increase in expected wins from what was expected last year from a near .500 team if you use the betting line as a barometer for level of play. With that said, at first glance this line seems pretty tight or rather close to where it should be. While I’m not sure there will be enough value to make a big play on the OVER, I do think there is enough value to make a small play. Atlanta was a very good home team last season and as you would expect from a team starting a good core of young players, they struggled on the road. What was impressive is that the Hawks went 17-13 last season against WESTERN conference opponents…and that is where/how they flew over their wins total line that was set last year.
This team is young, athletic, and a little deeper than last year’s team.
Last year was primarily a 7-8 man rotation. This year’s squad is much deeper with the very talented rookie Teague and combo guard (and scoring machine) Jamal Crawford backing up Bibby and Johnson in the backcourt and a front court plethora of reserves including Zaza Pachulia/Joe Smith/Maurice Evans/Jason Collins backing up two of the most talented 23 and younger “big men” in the league in the likes of Al Horford and Josh Smith.
The Hawks offense getting bogged down in the half court set on the road is something that was a detriment to them last year. Preseason signs point to Coach Woodson possibly loosening the reigns and letting his core run a little more this season. Jamal Crawford is a veteran who will be a spark off the bench and can step in and start immediately should the Hawks suffer an injury in the backcourt.
The Hawks have had a VERY solid preseason, they don’t turn the ball over, and they shoot a LOT of free throws.
Marvin Williams and Zaza Pachulia both signed extensions this offseason so will they be fat and happy or will they continue to improve? It would be hard to think that at 23 and 25 years old respectively they would digress but these things do happen in the NBA. Williams did miss 20+ games near the end of last season with a wrist injury and he is a VERY underrated all around player that no-one pays attention to in the NBA. However in those games he missed the Hawks won 67% of the time so it is hard to think a healthy Williams would have improved upon that.
I’m high on Al Horford. I think he makes drastic strides this year (possibly an all star) and when Horford and both Smiths (the young-Josh and the old-Joe) are on the floor with the occasional backcourt coupling of Joe Johnson and Williams you are going to have one of the longer/taller/most athletic lineups that the NBA can put on the floor.
The Negatives/Questions for the Hawks:
The division the Hawks play in has gotten much tougher as the only team that has failed to improve in that division…talent wise is the Miami Heat.
Will Coach Woodson open up and let his young stable of horses run? Will the young bigs (Horford/Josh Smith) continue to improve? Can Joe Johnson step up (He is looking for a BIG contract extension) and be a real #1 star without a mid season shooting slump? Will Crawford play defense?
Have they peaked with their core?
The Positives:
Scheduling is kind to the Hawks as they only have 2 road trips all season of longer than 3 games and don’t have any road trips of longer than 4 games.
The Hawks 2 west coast trips should fit in nicely for them. The first trip are games 3-4-5-6 of the season (they will be fresh) and the second west coast trip is after a 7 day rest period including the all star break.
This young team is maturing and plays great at home. They won’t be outmanned, at least athletically, against anyone in the league.
Late in games they have veteran leadership in the backcourt in Bibby/Johnson/Crawford/Williams all who know who to close games out.
1 Star Atlanta OVER 44.5
All plays will be rated between 1-4 stars.
Over the past 5 years I have been fortunate enough to profit every season on these....I hope that continues this season.
I will not be giving a write-up for every team in the league but instead just on those that I will be making an official play on.
2010 Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks:
current line 44.5 Over -115 (Juice varies from -115 to -130)
Last years Hawks closing line 38.5 Under -125
Last years Hawks regular season record: 47-35 (31-10h 16-25a)
Key Additions: Jamal Crawford/Jeff Teague/Joe Smith
Key Losses: Flip Murray. Acie Law and Speedy Claxton didn’t play much.
So the first thing I look at here is the drastic 6 game jump (from 38.5 with the UNDER juiced last year to 44.5 with the OVER juiced this year) in just one year. 6 games is a HUGE jump for a team that was lined near the .500 mark last year. This is a little over a 7% increase in expected wins from what was expected last year from a near .500 team if you use the betting line as a barometer for level of play. With that said, at first glance this line seems pretty tight or rather close to where it should be. While I’m not sure there will be enough value to make a big play on the OVER, I do think there is enough value to make a small play. Atlanta was a very good home team last season and as you would expect from a team starting a good core of young players, they struggled on the road. What was impressive is that the Hawks went 17-13 last season against WESTERN conference opponents…and that is where/how they flew over their wins total line that was set last year.
This team is young, athletic, and a little deeper than last year’s team.
Last year was primarily a 7-8 man rotation. This year’s squad is much deeper with the very talented rookie Teague and combo guard (and scoring machine) Jamal Crawford backing up Bibby and Johnson in the backcourt and a front court plethora of reserves including Zaza Pachulia/Joe Smith/Maurice Evans/Jason Collins backing up two of the most talented 23 and younger “big men” in the league in the likes of Al Horford and Josh Smith.
The Hawks offense getting bogged down in the half court set on the road is something that was a detriment to them last year. Preseason signs point to Coach Woodson possibly loosening the reigns and letting his core run a little more this season. Jamal Crawford is a veteran who will be a spark off the bench and can step in and start immediately should the Hawks suffer an injury in the backcourt.
The Hawks have had a VERY solid preseason, they don’t turn the ball over, and they shoot a LOT of free throws.
Marvin Williams and Zaza Pachulia both signed extensions this offseason so will they be fat and happy or will they continue to improve? It would be hard to think that at 23 and 25 years old respectively they would digress but these things do happen in the NBA. Williams did miss 20+ games near the end of last season with a wrist injury and he is a VERY underrated all around player that no-one pays attention to in the NBA. However in those games he missed the Hawks won 67% of the time so it is hard to think a healthy Williams would have improved upon that.
I’m high on Al Horford. I think he makes drastic strides this year (possibly an all star) and when Horford and both Smiths (the young-Josh and the old-Joe) are on the floor with the occasional backcourt coupling of Joe Johnson and Williams you are going to have one of the longer/taller/most athletic lineups that the NBA can put on the floor.
The Negatives/Questions for the Hawks:
The division the Hawks play in has gotten much tougher as the only team that has failed to improve in that division…talent wise is the Miami Heat.
Will Coach Woodson open up and let his young stable of horses run? Will the young bigs (Horford/Josh Smith) continue to improve? Can Joe Johnson step up (He is looking for a BIG contract extension) and be a real #1 star without a mid season shooting slump? Will Crawford play defense?
Have they peaked with their core?
The Positives:
Scheduling is kind to the Hawks as they only have 2 road trips all season of longer than 3 games and don’t have any road trips of longer than 4 games.
The Hawks 2 west coast trips should fit in nicely for them. The first trip are games 3-4-5-6 of the season (they will be fresh) and the second west coast trip is after a 7 day rest period including the all star break.
This young team is maturing and plays great at home. They won’t be outmanned, at least athletically, against anyone in the league.
Late in games they have veteran leadership in the backcourt in Bibby/Johnson/Crawford/Williams all who know who to close games out.
1 Star Atlanta OVER 44.5
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