My 1 unit bets are $500. This is 4 unit. 3 is usually my max but I'm pushing the envelope on this bet and here's why:
-My model shows this play as profitable. Even if I personally have reasons it's a good bet but my model shows differently than I will pass on the game (except in certain situations like say if the Lakers somehow lose the first 2 against portland I'd unload on the Lakers ML in game 3)
-Obviously the Bucks have the best defense in the NBA that's no secret (no offense Raptors)
-Orlando defense is MUCH better than people realize. They're also really good at defensive rebounding.
-Combine those things with Orlando's inept offense AND the likelihood of a blowout and we have an insane edge on this bet. The fact this total is higher than the thunder/Rockets total is fucking hilarious
-This is already a great bet for the regular season. It becomes a nuclear bomb of a bet in the playoffs when intensity is upped a couple notches
The one bad thing (and it is indeed bad as this is very important) is Milwaukee's pace of play. I expect Orlando's snail of a pace to neutralize it enough as well as the other factors listed above and just the slight hesitation of players in the playoffs when things go even slightly bad. Also if you look at just the bubble play the Bucks offense isn't quite there yet. They'll get there but that's not a switch you can just turn on. (Miami/Indy is absolutely fucked in the 2nd round don't get it twisted)
Pace of play is honestly more important than everything else listed but you actually have to know how to apply it which is where I excel at. Most people just look at the numbers which is honestly meaningless if you don't know how they factor into the matchup
I usually don't sweat results too much but a 4 (!) unit play has the juices going a little bit. I won't give write ups very often as I normally just work off of my model but I'm not doing anything today and I was in the mood.
3
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Magic/Bucks under 225.5 -110 $2200 to win $2000
My 1 unit bets are $500. This is 4 unit. 3 is usually my max but I'm pushing the envelope on this bet and here's why:
-My model shows this play as profitable. Even if I personally have reasons it's a good bet but my model shows differently than I will pass on the game (except in certain situations like say if the Lakers somehow lose the first 2 against portland I'd unload on the Lakers ML in game 3)
-Obviously the Bucks have the best defense in the NBA that's no secret (no offense Raptors)
-Orlando defense is MUCH better than people realize. They're also really good at defensive rebounding.
-Combine those things with Orlando's inept offense AND the likelihood of a blowout and we have an insane edge on this bet. The fact this total is higher than the thunder/Rockets total is fucking hilarious
-This is already a great bet for the regular season. It becomes a nuclear bomb of a bet in the playoffs when intensity is upped a couple notches
The one bad thing (and it is indeed bad as this is very important) is Milwaukee's pace of play. I expect Orlando's snail of a pace to neutralize it enough as well as the other factors listed above and just the slight hesitation of players in the playoffs when things go even slightly bad. Also if you look at just the bubble play the Bucks offense isn't quite there yet. They'll get there but that's not a switch you can just turn on. (Miami/Indy is absolutely fucked in the 2nd round don't get it twisted)
Pace of play is honestly more important than everything else listed but you actually have to know how to apply it which is where I excel at. Most people just look at the numbers which is honestly meaningless if you don't know how they factor into the matchup
I usually don't sweat results too much but a 4 (!) unit play has the juices going a little bit. I won't give write ups very often as I normally just work off of my model but I'm not doing anything today and I was in the mood.
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