Bet against the public

Noticed the last two days. The biggest public plays lose.
Today was Orlando and Boston...

Yday was lakers and Utah 

Day before was Philly and boston

..Utah covered yesterday...

Utah...

Ok so it went 5-1

u guys focus on the wrong shit damn

U only focusing on the last few days...Meaningless...

@davemsh

 I agree all these trends come and go.

trust im always tryna crack one.

im just sayin were focusing on the 1 loss.

instead of analyzing 

I use to always fade the highest % on covers  3-4 years ago...Trust me if u faded the highest  % you would end up losing.  You won't win a lot but you won't lose either...I would say it hits about 55% of the time..I thought I was sharp and was going to fade the public...Does not work that way...Someone would have  figured it out years ago...

You can always try fading yourself. Sometimes if I did that, I’d be hitting 80%.

No no I know it's the last 3 days but curious to see how it plays out.

In the nfl it was massive close 70% betting 3 a week.

Let's see how it goes here I'll keep track for tomorrow too. 

Yes Utah did win but put it there to shows its not 100%. Let see 

Ats 5-1 

Ml 5-1

Give it 2 weeks and it will be 50% ATS..Been there down that...

@davemsh

 oh of course, it made me a lot of money in the nfl (weekly though) but let's see how it works, it works great if not oh well lol

The problem with fading the public its around 50-55% win.

And the books win with the juice even if you hit around that percentage. Yeah sure public got murdered one day. The next day is a different day. Maybe the books get murdered next.

HOUSTON is the public bet we need to fade tonight...Rockets bet is always a trap

the second one is San Antonio

@HeadOverHeart

 yep!

Hate your play

LOVE your wife!

Regard,

Mr. Bigwoods

***

I don't think it's a good idea to just blindly fade the public for any kind of play.  Why are you making the bet?  If you're just firing because the public can't be right about a side, that's lazy capping.  You could get crushed if the public starts hitting for a week or two.  You don't think that ever happens?  A better strategy is to look at consensus numbers and ask yourself if that's justified based on how the teams are playing recently.  I actually like the numbers on Covers because sometimes I see the percentages and I don't think they line up with how people should be picking the game.  Other times I've seen 70% on a side and my first thought is of course.  There's no way you could pick the other side other than being a contrarian or hoping for a miracle.  Watch the teams and form your opinions about how good or bad they are.  Yeah, you might be wrong but at least you did it on your own.  There's no fucking way anyone has struck it rich by just fading the most popular plays every day.  You're probably like 1 of a million people who considered that idea already, which means it's not a genius move.

..Seen numerous threads about this over the years....I even tried it myself....Short term you may get lucky and catch lightning in a bottle...Long term...zero chance...as it goes back and forth and you need discipline to ride it out over the long haul...As you mentioned...the so called public can get hot for a 2 weeks...

@sicknesscity

 absolutely I'm not saying it's the only thing I look at but gives me guidance.

But if it's a system that works that I can use with other systems why not?? 

So public plays are gsw bulls and okc 

Let's see how it goes :)

This concept is old

                            old concept = winning

so yday wasn't a good day but lets see

su: 5-3

ats: 5-3

Today is brkln over 230 over in bucks and pelicans +8

Yesterday...The Bulls had the highest % on covers.....They covered..