Long time lurker here. I am not really going to start posting plays but betting angles instead. Here's one I found for tomorrow night.
When majority of the betting public cap games they usually go about like this: If Team A beats Team B, and Team B beats Team C, therefore Team A willbeat Team C.
A prime example is the Boston @ Philadelphia game. Minnesota came to Philadelphia 3 days ago and floored the home team 105 to 88. The next day we saw a 104-94 win by Boston over the Timberwolves that isn't really as close as the final score would be. Now, Philadelphia hosts Boston as a one point home dog and people would think that Boston is the right play here. 60% of the consensus are on them as I type this.With a looming home-and-home series, I think the both home team will win in their respective games.
Anyway, like I said, public perception of a current team's strenght is usually based on their most recent outing. When a lot of people cap games, they try to find a commonality on both sides; ones they do, they try and use that. Perception should be the Celtics will beat the 76ers and the almost pick em of a line is a gift. I think otherwise. If there's anything, the play is against the Celtics.
Thoughts?
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Long time lurker here. I am not really going to start posting plays but betting angles instead. Here's one I found for tomorrow night.
When majority of the betting public cap games they usually go about like this: If Team A beats Team B, and Team B beats Team C, therefore Team A willbeat Team C.
A prime example is the Boston @ Philadelphia game. Minnesota came to Philadelphia 3 days ago and floored the home team 105 to 88. The next day we saw a 104-94 win by Boston over the Timberwolves that isn't really as close as the final score would be. Now, Philadelphia hosts Boston as a one point home dog and people would think that Boston is the right play here. 60% of the consensus are on them as I type this.With a looming home-and-home series, I think the both home team will win in their respective games.
Anyway, like I said, public perception of a current team's strenght is usually based on their most recent outing. When a lot of people cap games, they try to find a commonality on both sides; ones they do, they try and use that. Perception should be the Celtics will beat the 76ers and the almost pick em of a line is a gift. I think otherwise. If there's anything, the play is against the Celtics.
Looks like you are here to tell the old story. No one do that anymore. Thats 70's dude. Everyone is playing smart nowadays. Dont you ever think if you go against the public you will win. Thats just wrong. If you dont believe me, fade the public everyday, see if you come out positive.
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Looks like you are here to tell the old story. No one do that anymore. Thats 70's dude. Everyone is playing smart nowadays. Dont you ever think if you go against the public you will win. Thats just wrong. If you dont believe me, fade the public everyday, see if you come out positive.
Looks like you are here to tell the old story. No one do that anymore. Thats 70's dude. Everyone is playing smart nowadays. Dont you ever think if you go against the public you will win. Thats just wrong. If you dont believe me, fade the public everyday, see if you come out positive.
This is true, overthinking plays this way too often has been killer to some cappers. I also think its way too early yet to judge the %'s the sides are on yet. People could also see they have the same record, and Sixers have home court advantage here, and their not favored?
Remember this a big enough card with many other games, don't let %'s be too big a deal here. I think some cappers feel this way the day after where big standout games like Knicks vs Heat happen, and then these cappers fall victim yet again, by trying to hard to not make the same mistake they made the day just before.
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Quote Originally Posted by ThinkTwice:
Looks like you are here to tell the old story. No one do that anymore. Thats 70's dude. Everyone is playing smart nowadays. Dont you ever think if you go against the public you will win. Thats just wrong. If you dont believe me, fade the public everyday, see if you come out positive.
This is true, overthinking plays this way too often has been killer to some cappers. I also think its way too early yet to judge the %'s the sides are on yet. People could also see they have the same record, and Sixers have home court advantage here, and their not favored?
Remember this a big enough card with many other games, don't let %'s be too big a deal here. I think some cappers feel this way the day after where big standout games like Knicks vs Heat happen, and then these cappers fall victim yet again, by trying to hard to not make the same mistake they made the day just before.
Looks like you are here to tell the old story. No one do that anymore. Thats 70's dude. Everyone is playing smart nowadays. Dont you ever think if you go against the public you will win. Thats just wrong. If you dont believe me, fade the public everyday, see if you come out positive.
I'm not saying to bet against the Public always. That's some close-minded way of going about with things.
All I'm saying is to pick your spots.
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Quote Originally Posted by ThinkTwice:
Looks like you are here to tell the old story. No one do that anymore. Thats 70's dude. Everyone is playing smart nowadays. Dont you ever think if you go against the public you will win. Thats just wrong. If you dont believe me, fade the public everyday, see if you come out positive.
I'm not saying to bet against the Public always. That's some close-minded way of going about with things.
The trick is to find the games with value. Just an example...say out of 6 games, 3 will be public winners and 3 will be non public winners. The key is to figure out which teams actually hold value in the line, and which team is faking the funk. The same night the Wizards beat the Heat, OKC covered as a 60% public bet.
I regards to the Sixers game against the Celtics, I hear the same thing: "Rondo's back" "Sixers are garbage" blah blah blah. At the end of the day, you have 2 teams that are 10-8 and are pretty evenly matched. The game is a coinflip according to the line, yet 2/3's of the public are taking the Celtics.
Why? Public perception. Rondo's back. Sixers got blown out at home by the T wolves. Bynum is still out.
When they should be thinking, Rondo might be rusty, Sixers are really going to step up after getting embarrassed by the T wolves, and they've won 10 games without Bynum.
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The trick is to find the games with value. Just an example...say out of 6 games, 3 will be public winners and 3 will be non public winners. The key is to figure out which teams actually hold value in the line, and which team is faking the funk. The same night the Wizards beat the Heat, OKC covered as a 60% public bet.
I regards to the Sixers game against the Celtics, I hear the same thing: "Rondo's back" "Sixers are garbage" blah blah blah. At the end of the day, you have 2 teams that are 10-8 and are pretty evenly matched. The game is a coinflip according to the line, yet 2/3's of the public are taking the Celtics.
Why? Public perception. Rondo's back. Sixers got blown out at home by the T wolves. Bynum is still out.
When they should be thinking, Rondo might be rusty, Sixers are really going to step up after getting embarrassed by the T wolves, and they've won 10 games without Bynum.
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