Grizzlies +6.5 @ Pacers
Factor: Riding the “progression”/Fading the “regression”
Sitting currently atop the NBA are the Indiana Pacers. Undefeated through seven games, they look like a team that is on a mission. Limiting their opponents to 85 points per game and 38% shooting, they’re winning these games without putting up gargantuan offensive numbers. Their style is dubbed as “deliberate and boring” but the results speak for themselves. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are sitting at .500 right now. Struggling to find their consistency early on, they demolished the Warriors (albeit a tired Golden State finishing their road trip) in their last game. This is team that is better than their current record indicates. Since the Pacers are currently 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS while the Grizzlies are an abysmal 1-5 ATS so far, the oddsmakers are inflating the line for this game a little bit. With a tough four game stretch upcoming for the Pacers (vs. Grizzlies, vs. Bucks, @Bulls, @Knicks), I’ll monitor the Pacers game by game and fade them accordingly. Combined that with fact that the Pacers are getting a lot of media hype because of their hot start, the oddsmakers will shade some points against the Pacers to compensate for the people who like to ride the "hot" team.
On the flip side, the Grizzlies have a favorable schedule after this game and before their showdown with the Clippers (vs. Raptors, @Lakers, @Kings) so I’m looking to ride them a bit if the line is right for their succeeding games (like what I did with the Wizards the past three games).
With both teams playing similar style of basketball that relies on shutting down people and controlling the ball, seven points are a tad high. I often dub the Pacers as the Grizzlies East (and vice versa) because of how similar the make up and philosophy of these teams. Seven points in what is basically a toss up game are too much. Grizz keep this one close.
Hawks @ Bobcats +3
Factor: The traveller’s conundrum/Riding the “auto-faded” team
I love betting the Bobcats in these kinds of situations. “Oh, they got blown out yet again last game. This is the beginning of another downhill trend for them. Easy ca$$$h!” Because of common thinking like this, we get another inflated line on the Bobcats and I’m ready to swoop in. Thanks Mr. Joe Public! Aside from the automatic premium attached to Bobcats games (as repeatedly explained in my previous write-ups), this is a tough spot for the Hawks who have not stayed in the same city since the beginning of the season (@DAL > ATL > @LA > @SAC > @DEN > ATL > @CHA). Humans are creatures of habit. Having to travel by plane after every game and staying at different hotels will never be comfortable no matter who you are. And now they’ll battle a rested Charlotte team that is in the middle of a current homestand. There’s also the fact that the Hawks have won the last eight meetings (six by double digits) against the Bobcats. The “experts” and “touts” like to throw those kinds of trends in their analysis as if that’s relevant to the current situation. I’m expecting a sluggish performance from the Hawks given their brutal travel schedule so far. Take the home team with the points.
sounds super gl
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