Posted:
#1
How often do we see a line like this in a playoff game? The line is right in Vegas's wheelhouse and it has bounced around from Miami -14 to -14.5 to -14. Think about it: if this line was Miami -10 the public $ would be 90/10 Heat and if it was Miami -20 it would be 80/20 Bulls. This line draws both Heat and Bulls $ fairly equally, right now @ 53/47 Heat. A polarizing Heat squad versus a depleted and injury-riddled Bulls team that hung with the Heat in the regular season with ones team post season on the line? This has back door cover written all over it as the Heat will most likely rest the Big 3 if/when they are up by 20-22 with 3 minutes left.
I'm not touching this line, but am taking the Under 181. If the Heat blow out the Bulls it will look something like 102 - 77 and if the Bulls play good D, slow the game down, and force the Heat to take bad shots, a score around 92 - 85.
I know "you can look at any game this way" but not too many playoff games resemble this one given all the factors. Neither play on the line seems like a solid pick unless you feel that the Bulls have given up and I certainly don't believe that to be the case.
Good luck with your picks, just wanted to put my thought on this game out there.
I'm not touching this line, but am taking the Under 181. If the Heat blow out the Bulls it will look something like 102 - 77 and if the Bulls play good D, slow the game down, and force the Heat to take bad shots, a score around 92 - 85.
I know "you can look at any game this way" but not too many playoff games resemble this one given all the factors. Neither play on the line seems like a solid pick unless you feel that the Bulls have given up and I certainly don't believe that to be the case.
Good luck with your picks, just wanted to put my thought on this game out there.
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