Posted:
#1
We saw a prime example of it tonight. Miami (according to many trends/stats) was in a very good spot tonight against OKC, until they weren't. When you are a bad/mediocre team, going against a team with a couple of all-stars, either of whom can go off at any time, you are not in as a good a spot as you think you are, especially when the all-star break is just around the corner.
Every year around this time, capping gets extremely tricky. Throw in the trade-deadline, and now we have complete chaos. I've lost more money betting the NBA during this time of year (just before and after the all-star break), than any other time. And yet, I make the same mistake year after year. These are the dog days of the NBA. Guys are tired/distracted/looking forward to the break/angry at not having been chosen for the all-star game (and so have an ax to grind)/ happy/relieved at having been chosen and therefore less motivated/teams wanting to finish strong before the break/ teams mailing it in before the break, etc.
Having watched most of this week's nationally televised games, it seems like the only thing you can still count on is revenge. Yes, it does not always work out: like the Grizz tonight. Instead of winning the game outright in this revenge situation, they blew the cover. Why? Because they are a mediocre/unreliable team with an average coach. Compare their performance with the Nuggets, who were in a double revenge situation. Or even the Wizards at home against the Pacers (BTW, it's easier to get revenge at home than on the road: e.g., the Grizz). Speaking of mediocre teams, there was also the Lakers against the Clippers, and last week it was the Pacers who beat the Raptors, in a double revenge spot, at home (in a game they should have covered). So where does all this that leave us...
Well, the Orlando Magic find themselves in a double revenge spot tomorrow against a team that, due to a scheduling fluke, they have played twice during the last couple of weeks. Both were hard-fought close games which the Magic barely lost. In the game in Orlando, the Magic had a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter but blew it. The line for this game tomorrow is -2, so covering the spread should not be a problem. The problem is, how much can we trust this team, especially against a resilient Nets bunch: the answer is we don't. We simply cap the situation/spot and back the team in that spot while modifying the amount we wager based on how much trust the team playing in that spot in relation to their opponent: in this case, The Nets.
Orlando is a team that has caused bettors (especially sharp bettors) a lot of grief this season. But if there was ever a spot to trust them (or have faith they'd give damn) it would be this one. They have been solid in revenge spots this year (though they have failed on at least a couple of occasions in tight games). The other factor working for us is that the Nets have already beaten these shmucks a couple of times and the game following this one is against the Bucks (in a revenge game) at home in NY. In other words, this is also a look-ahead spot for the Nets. But since the Nets already burned us once, and since we are dealing with Orlando (the epitome of mediocrity), we risk only one unit.
Magic -2 for one unit
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