Posted:
#1
Cavs are 9-5 ATS on the road as opposed to 2-14 ATS at home. Tonite with being on the roll that they have been on, the Cavs are -1. Listen l, I understand the revenge factors and idea that the Bucks are an up and coming team with a good coach but Cavs only -1? I looked at the data and granted no free data out there dill give you exact percentages, the public is taking the Cavs without hesitation. Basically around 85% or so are in the Cavs. So is this a gift or is it bait? Even though Lebron and the Cavs are the best at coming in right under the number, it's Lebron folks. We saw this line in the Chargers game this weekend, we saw it with the Rams game and we just saw it last nite with the philly/bulls line? Public loved philly thinking that it was a low spread even without embiid and bulls in fact won. My initial lean was wtf when I saw the line. Shortly thereafter....I asked myself....are the books throwing me a gift here? Rarely does that happen and the locker here is that there are only two other games on the menu tonite. I see many on the Bucks tonite....
0
This time, I'm just gonna go with the obvious play and take the Cavs -1. To me, the "sharp" play would be to take the Bucks but sometimes, it's the obvious, SQUARE plays that are winners. Watch, the Cavs win by double digits and a thread will be opened with a title of "Why did I take the Bucks?" 
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