Posted:
#1
People keep asking me about NBA plays so instead of texting them every day I am posting it publicly here. I'm not here to qualify myself to you, and I don't care about arguing. I watch about 5 hrs of NBA every day and I'm basing my decisions off of actually watching the games, not so much stats. Take it or leave it. There will be short write-ups included. My injury information is mostly based of NBC's rotoworld.com, if anyone has better sources of injury statuses I'm open to checking. I mostly flat bet same amount on each play with the occasional 1.33X or 1.5X play, but very, very rarely higher than that.
Tuesday March 8, 2016
Nets+12@Raptors TAKE NETS+12
The Nets have put up impressive performances ever since the all-star break hanging in there with several opponents both at home and on the road. Yes they got blown out in their last outing, but it was largely because Brook Lopez didn't play for "personal reasons", whatever that means. He's not injured at all and he's going to play in this one, with fresh legs. Shane Larkin has been running the point beautifully. I think the Nets are still flying under the radar as one of the better, BAD teams. The Raptors are obviously a much better team than the Nets, and at home, but they've been slightly overachieving this year. I think 12 is a bit too high. At Raptors-9 I wouldn't touch it, but 12 is enough to entice me.
Hawks+1.5@Jazz TAKE HAWKS+1.5 OR ML
I think they have the wrong team favored here. Atlanta has a significantly better record and seems to have turned things around lately. Both teams are relatively healthy, so that's a wash. Atlanta is coming off of a very impressive stretch of last 5 games in which they won CHI, CHA, @LAL, & @LAC and lost in OT @GS (w/o Curry). The Jazz have been terrible as of late losing 8/10 ATS and 7/10 straight up. They even lost at home to the Nets. The Jazz are an overvalued team that was doing good things before the all-star break and have since fallen apart. I have no faith in the Jazz offense. Atlanta is starting to look like the #1 east seed of last year.
Knicks+2.5@Nuggets
Another game where I think the wrong team is favored. The Knicks have been VERY impressive lately although their record doesn't reflect it. They beat Orlando decisively and then faced 3 of the hottest teams in the league all in a row ORL, MIA, @BOS, and really should have beat the Celtics, but they lost by 1 and then they beat the "supposedly contending" Pistons by 13. Carmelo Anthony might be inspired to play well in a venue that he is intimately familiar with. Porzingis got a bruise a few games ago and sat the last one out, so he's going to play and be fresh. BUT the most important aspect is that this team hasn't been nearly as dangerous without Danilo Gallinari. IMO he was the best player on their team (although Mudiay might be next season). This would be like the Jazz losing Gordon Hayward. Unless Mudiay goes off and Augustin gets 12 assists, I think the Knicks get this one.
Wizards+6@Blazers TAKE WASH+6
In January these 2 teams played @ WAS and the Wizards were giving 4 points. John wall shot 4/17 and had only 9 points. The Blazers won by 10, but history does not predict the future. The Wizards really bolstered their roster before by trading for Markieff Morris and have since been a better team. They beat the Cavs in 1/2 meetings since the trade deadline, they took care of business against a whole bunch of crappy teams, and they've had an additional day of rest as compared to the Blazers. So why the 10 point spread differential from the WAS-4 January meeting to the WAS+6 now? I can't find a great reason for that much of a swing.
All the rest of the games I think the lines are pretty close to dead on, so I will not be playing them.
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