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Tuesday March 8, 2016

Nets+12@Raptors TAKE NETS+12

The Nets have put up impressive performances ever since the all-star break hanging in there with several opponents both at home and on the road.  Yes they got blown out in their last outing, but it was largely because Brook Lopez didn't play for  "personal reasons", whatever that means. He's not injured at all and he's going to play in this one, with fresh legs. Shane Larkin has been running the point beautifully.  I think the Nets are still flying under the radar as one of the better, BAD teams.  The Raptors are obviously a much better team than the Nets, and at home, but they've been slightly overachieving this year.  I think 12 is a bit too high.  At Raptors-9 I wouldn't touch it, but 12 is enough to entice me. 

Hawks+1.5@Jazz TAKE HAWKS+1.5 OR ML

I think they have the wrong team favored here.  Atlanta has a significantly better record and seems to have turned things around lately.  Both teams are relatively healthy, so that's a wash.  Atlanta is coming off of a very impressive stretch of last 5 games in which they won CHI, CHA, @LAL, & @LAC and lost in OT @GS (w/o Curry).  The Jazz have been terrible as of late losing 8/10 ATS and 7/10 straight up. They even lost at home to the Nets. The Jazz are an overvalued team that was doing good things before the all-star break and have since fallen apart.  I have no faith in the Jazz offense.  Atlanta is starting to look like the #1 east seed of last year.  

Knicks+2.5@Nuggets

Another game where I think the wrong team is favored.  The Knicks have been VERY impressive lately although their record doesn't reflect it.  They beat Orlando decisively and then faced 3 of the hottest teams in the league all in a row ORL, MIA, @BOS, and really should have beat the Celtics, but they lost by 1 and then they beat the "supposedly contending" Pistons by 13.  Carmelo Anthony might be inspired to play well in a venue that he is intimately familiar with. Porzingis got a bruise a few games ago and sat the last one out, so he's going to play and be fresh.  BUT the most important aspect is that this team hasn't been nearly as dangerous without Danilo Gallinari.  IMO he was the best player on their team (although Mudiay might be next season).  This would be like the Jazz losing Gordon Hayward.  Unless Mudiay goes off and Augustin gets 12 assists, I think the Knicks get this one.

Wizards+6@Blazers TAKE WASH+6

In January these 2 teams played @ WAS and the Wizards were giving 4 points.  John wall shot 4/17 and had only 9 points. The Blazers won by 10, but history does not predict the future.  The Wizards really bolstered their roster before by trading for Markieff Morris and have since been a better team. They beat the Cavs in 1/2 meetings since the trade deadline, they took care of business against a whole bunch of crappy teams, and they've had an additional day of rest as compared to the Blazers.  So why the 10 point spread differential from the WAS-4 January meeting to the WAS+6 now?  I can't find a great reason for that much of a swing.

I just think that +6 is large enough for me to not ignore it.  The line feels inflated to me because of the rise in popularity of lillard & mccollum but the Blazers are nearly as bad defensively as they are good offensively.  I don't think they'll be able to hold John Wall down a second game.  I think the spread should be. POR -3.5 or -4

Grizzlies+11@Celtics  TAKE GRIZZLIES+11

Grizzlies are coming off a shocking upset of the Cavs, adn they did so with a terribly depleted roster.  No Conley, No Randolph, etc.  We have to ask ourselves if this was a fluke game.  Handicapping this game depends on how legit we think the Grizzlies performance was against the Cavs and whether they'll be able to replicate anything close to that today.  I say it was NOT a fluke.  It is true that they are a better team with Conley and Randolph (and Gasol), but JaMychal Green is quickly and quietly turning into a 15/10 type of player.  Mario Chalmers looks like he as something to prove after playing "5th fiddle" in miami for so long.  Tony Allen has always been a premier defender, and any offense is icing on the cake.  Vinsanity might have a little left in the tank, and Lance Stephenson is finally getting what he wants out of this season...a fresh start and some real minutes.  ALSO we know all about the injuries to the Grizz, but Sullinger and Olynyk are both game time decisions.  If they can't go who is going to play center for Boston?  Who is going to grab rebounds?  Certainly not their tiny guards. Also, small point, these 2 teams have the exact same record.

Heat-3@Bucks TAKE HEAT-3

If someone tried to make the case to me that the Heat are the best team in the east right now, I wouldn't argue.  Since the all-star break they have been playing out of their mind.  Whiteside is dominating the paint.  Wade looks like his legs are reasonably fresh.  Everyone is stepping up and producing.  Whiteside is probable today with a virus, and if late inormation comes out that he won't play then I probably wouldn't touch this game.  BUT I dont think enough of a big deal has been made with MCW out for the season for the Bucks.  Anytime a team loses its point guard, its going to affect the offensive flow much more so than any other position.  I think getting Miami at only -3 here is a bargain and the strongest play of the day. 

Knicks+2@Suns TAKE KNICKS+2

This should jump out to everyone at first glance.  The Suns are favored?!  I have to admit I didn't need to dig too deep on this one to come up with my play...it just has to be the Knicks.  I know the Knicks have not come up with that many W's recently, but they are going against the bottom of the barrel here.  The Suns, find themselves in a tanking lottery race with the Lakers and 76ers.  Tanking IS real, don't deny it.  We have here a less talented team with a real incentive to tank vs a more talented team that is actually trying to win.  I was encouraged that Porzingis's and Anthony's minutes actually went up a little bit last game as I take it as a sign they're not just shutting key players down for the season.  Watch the injury report closely on this game though, if suddenly rests, obviously dont play NYK.

Clippers@Thunder-5-5  TAKE THUNDER-5.5

If anyone bet Thunder @ Clippers last week and watched it they remember counting the money as OKC was up by 22 late in the 3rdQ.  Then....KD....former MVP....played terrible.  He committed many key turnovers and threw up plenty of 4thQ bricks to allow LAC tons of fast break points and OKC lost the game.  It was a pretty epic collapse, and I don't use that term unless it is warranted. I would say OKC blew the game more than LAC did good things to win it.  I don't think OKC will let another one slip away like that.  On a positive note the OKC role players (everyone except KD & Westbrook) looked very sharp.  The ball movement was good, the defense was good, and the decision making was good.  I expect OKC to avenge the loss with a solid win here.