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Discussion for the Playoffs - Pretenders vs Contenders

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Posted: #1
Little early to look at these numbers but wanted to take a look anyway. To win in the playoffs you need rebounding and the ability to get to the free throw line. A lot of teams are winning in the regular season, and have been crowned contenders - but are lacking what will be successful come playoff time.

Chicago Bulls.

The Bulls are #3 in the league in FT Attempts per game at 27 per game. 3.7 more than they were averaging last year. The Bulls are also #7 in rebounding differential.

Cleveland Cavs.

The Cavs are #7 in the league in FT attempts - 25.8 per game and 3.1 more than last season. They are also #11 in rebounding differential.

San Antonio.

Spurs are #18 in FT attempts per game but #5 in rebounding differential per game.

Houston

Rockets are #4 in the league getting to the line, and #6 in rebounding differential.

Oklahoma City.

The Thunder are #2 in rebounding differential in the NBA but just #15 in FT attempts per game. This number is likely skewed due to Westbrook and Durant being out for a majority of the year.

Golden State.

Warriors are #24 in the league in getting to the free throw line and #13 in rebounding differential. 


The Bulls look like the biggest contender in the East. I obviously like the Thunder in the West, and although the Rockets seem overrated - their numbers prove they might be successful in the playoffs this time around. Looks like the Warriors are relying way too much on the outside shot as well. Will that streakiness continue in the playoffs? Memphis and the Clippers both have a negative rebounding differential which is quite surprising, and just middle of the pack getting to the FT line. 

Discuss your early favorites
 
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Posted: #2
Warriors get so many easy looks now that they're moving the ball (much like the Spurs), that free throw disparity won't matter as much. It's teams that can't get quality looks that need to worry.
 
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Posted: #3
Too early to talk.

Regular Season is not Playoffs.
 
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Posted: #4
Cleveland isnt winning anything with that defense, or should I say lack there of. Who knows who will be healthy for chicago in april with the excessive minutes they play. I strongly disagree with the notion that chicago and cleveland are the run away favorites to come out of the east.
 
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Posted: #5
I really like Defense and team chemistry which a few teams like Memphis SA Warriors Thunder, these teams have been together for a while and you cant buy CHEMISTRY !

EAST I like Chicago and ATL & TOR for the same reasons.

two wild cards MAVS and CAVS
these two have the talent but with these new additions can they be elite come playoff time???
 
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Posted: #6
I'm in total agreement.

I don't think Toronto will be able to hold up.

Washington is the third best team in the East.

Clippers are underachievers.

I do think you're overlooking Memphis however.  They have enough to be contenders.  If they only had one Guard or SF that could score, I would have them as the favorites to win the West.

Also, now that Dallas finally has a pure PG, they have to be in the conversation, considering they've gotten better since last year and lost in 7 games to the Spurs.

 
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Posted: #7
For me Bulls or Hawks in the east and Spurs or Thunder in the west
I'm a big fan of late clock execution on both ends and rebounding in the playoffs.

 
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Posted: #8
With Bogut, the Warriors are the best team in the league.
 
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Posted: #9
Bulls will win it all this year IF ...and a big IF ...they stay healthy they are so deep and have all stars at every position
 
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Posted: #10
A ton of Warriors love on here and ESPN. I still like the Spurs, OKC and Mavs out the West. Bulls will beat the Cavs on the other side. 
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by Tyler2834:

I'm in total agreement.

I don't think Toronto will be able to hold up.

Washington is the third best team in the East.

Clippers are underachievers.

I do think you're overlooking Memphis however.  They have enough to be contenders.  If they only had one Guard or SF that could score, I would have them as the favorites to win the West.

Also, now that Dallas finally has a pure PG, they have to be in the conversation, considering they've gotten better since last year and lost in 7 games to the Spurs.

What makes you say that? They have been doing this since last year. They have lost their best player and still holding up. Their team chemistry is amazing. The east is quite wide open. I think they will do well in the regular season. As for the playoffs, they will be better this year. Most of the guys were playoff virgins last year. They have learnt a tough lesson. They are not going to earn the respect until they win a playoff series though. Their rebounding is still a concern. They may need a move or two at the deadline to improve that frontline.

 
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Posted: #12
GS, Mavs, Rockets and Spurs are contenders. I don't like any of the chances of any eastern conference team.
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by killersweet:

What makes you say that? They have been doing this since last year. They have lost their best player and still holding up. Their team chemistry is amazing. The east is quite wide open. I think they will do well in the regular season. As for the playoffs, they will be better this year. Most of the guys were playoff virgins last year. They have learnt a tough lesson. They are not going to earn the respect until they win a playoff series though. Their rebounding is still a concern. They may need a move or two at the deadline to improve that frontline.


I don't think they're built to win in the playoffs.  They rely to much on guard play.
 
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Posted: #14
Hard to be impartial.  Have Memphis at 60-1 to win it all bet before season.
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by tuck321:

Hard to be impartial.  Have Memphis at 60-1 to win it all bet before season.

Memphis back court is just not good enough come playoffs.
 
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Posted: #16

"the Warriors are relying way too much on the outside shot as well. "

um, they are 4th in the league in scoring points in the paint

 
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Posted: #17
sac, lakers, and minn are all in the top 5 in scoring the highest percentage of their points from free throws, so that wipes out another of your premises
 
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Posted: #18
warriors need bogut and lee back healthy to be contenders in the playoffs
 
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Posted: #19
and your vaunted clippers--whom you somehow failed to mention--are in the middle of the pack as far as free throws contributing to their scoring, and at the bottom as far as points in the paint
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

Warriors get so many easy looks now that they're moving the ball (much like the Spurs), that free throw disparity won't matter as much. It's teams that can't get quality looks that need to worry.

 

Kerr explained how Curry giving up the ball has fueled the Warriors' offense at times: “I think what we try to do all the time is, if Steph gets doubled, just make the easy pass. Get it out of there. We got plenty of skill around him, and that’s what changed the Houston game the other night, the last five minutes. They kept trapping him on those drags and he just made the simple pass to Draymond. Draymond put it on the floor and we got easier shots.” 

Kerr, who hit one of the most famous Finals shots because Jordan passed out of a double-team, has a theory on why there’s so much demand for superstars to take the last shots: “It’s because people are idiots, that’s why. The point of the game is to get an open shot and if a guy’s double-teamed he should pass it. That’s the game.” 

That's what wins championships. Which is why the Thunder will never win one!

 
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Posted: #21
...wow,amazing!!!..not one person so far strongly favours the spurs...how many years will this shi.t go on for before folks learn??..."this is the year the spurs gas-tank finally runs empty"...stuck on repeat for about 8 or 9 strait years now.


totally understand that the hunger may have dissipated naturally after wat they did last year but my god,wen they peaked they played sum historically great basketball the likes of which has seldom ever been seen before in nba history thru that finals and playoff run.

IF healthy and relatively rested come post season,please tell me who exactly is better than this squad??(PROVEN in the cauldron of playoff basketball)...who's smarter,slicker,deeper,more versatile,shoots as well,is better-coached???

maybe this is the year,who knows??...but to make the same mistake over and over and over and over by sleeping on them is pure insanity.


youre out of your mind if you actually think houston is a true contendor,they have done ZERO as a group in playoff basketball and will be shown up horribly for their lack of depth and perimeter scoring once teams can scout them for a full series......warriors are interesting but its critical that they have bogut playing or theyre probably not going anywhere,and wat you think they gonna do wen/if they meet the spurs again??(apart from cry and shi.t their pants).....people are loving mavericks all of a sudden but have a look at wat theyve got left in the frontcourt now...tyson chandler,dirk nowitzki,charlie villenueva and greg smith!!!!!!...thats all they got in terms of size and interior presence...now in the modern nba ya can still win going small and dallas has already done so a few years back to be fair.....but playoffs is all about matchups and if they gotta go thru the grizzlies and their big boys and ground'n'pound style then mavs are in serious trouble.

on the subject of memphis i looooove wat theyre doing and clearly they are built for playoffs and have slowly but surely added a bit of depth,could still use sum more outside shooting but they get by allrite..the question as always for them is in those critical games of a tight series can they get the buckets they need in clutch moments??thats where they have come up short sumtimes and if they can get over that hump it wouldnt surprise to see them come out the west,theyre hungry,tough,together and defensive-minded.

totally agree with beginnerboy,it will be a sad,sad day if thunder ever come out of the west again playing the way that they do...russell and durant are outrageously talented but will have to go bonkers for entire series at a time to over-whelm the deeper,better-coached,more unselfish teams in the west.....not impossible but not likely i dont reckon.hard to sustain such epic individual play for 3 or 4 long series against tough opponents,exerting all that energy.

clippers look okay on the face of it but for me theres just sumthing missing that doesnt put them as likely big-time winners..not sure wat it is,dont really like their role players a whole lot and they just dont strike me as being tough enough or bloody-minded enuff as a group.


i dont think anyone from the east beats the western champ so dont really care who comes out of that side but chuck cavs,raptors,wizards,hawks in a blender and see which one comes out to face bulls in the finals(health permitting)....bulls likely beat any of them with their defensive mentality and added depth and improvement of guys so far this season.
 
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Posted: #22
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by Amazatron:

With Bogut, the Warriors are the best team in the league.

Yep. And that FT disparity will even out once Lee returns. He's a good passer who's a banger down low and if he accepts his role, the warriors will be humming like a well oiled machine.

The Cavs are also a contender IF (AND THIS IS A REALLY BIG IF) LBJ starts playing for 48 mins instead of just the last 5mins fo the game. The cavs can blow teams out of the water, but LBJ looks disinterested for most of the game, that's why they're performing like this.

Clippers are a pretender if they continue to roll with that bench. Hawks are borderline contenders. OKC might be a contender,but all is resting on Durant's shoulders.
 
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by eggshog:


Yep. And that FT disparity will even out once Lee returns. He's a good passer who's a banger down low and if he accepts his role, the warriors will be humming like a well oiled machine.

The Cavs are also a contender IF (AND THIS IS A REALLY BIG IF) LBJ starts playing for 48 mins instead of just the last 5mins fo the game. The cavs can blow teams out of the water, but LBJ looks disinterested for most of the game, that's why they're performing like this.

Clippers are a pretender if they continue to roll with that bench. Hawks are borderline contenders. OKC might be a contender,but all is resting on Durant's shoulders.

No.  They are performing like this because they suck on the defensive end.  You aren't going to blow out any competent team when you leave their shooters open. Cleveland is bottom 5 in the league for opponents FG% at 47%.  Only the Lakers, Miami, Minny and Utah allow their opponent to shoot a higher percentage. 
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