Fish's Slippery Player Picks Monday (YTD: 60-51)

Team,

Nice end to the weekend with a lil 2-0 night last night. Got a coupla goodies for you to start off your week.

James Harden Under 27.5 Points

That's right, an UNDER. KD is out and the bookies have gone all crazy, setting Harden's line well above what it probably should be. He scored 32 and 34 in his first couple of games in NYC, but since then has passed this number just ONCE out of 12 attempts. Obviously, KD being out makes a massive difference to that, but this isn't the first game he's missed. In the five others Harden's played and KD hasn't, Harden has 19, 25, 26, 24 and 19. It's also worth noting that in four of those he has taken 14 shots or less (hardly a recipe for getting 28+ points even withstanding that he gets to the line), and in the only one of those in which he took more than that, Kyrie was also out. Kyrie is playing tonight so hopefully we see sub 15 shots again from Jim, meaning it will take a huge shooting night for him to pass this. Also worth mentioning that although the Kings' defence has been shit this season they have tightened the screws in the past couple of weeks.

Jimmy Butler Over 7 Rebounds

I have this at $1.71 for over 6.5 and $2.40 for over 7.5 in Aussie odds, so have set it at 7 for the purpose of my record. Incidentally I took the +140 for 7.5 because he's passed that number in seven consecutive games. A couple of those he's been right on 8 but nonetheless I think the odds are well and truly in our favour here.

Jimmy Butler Over 7 Assists

Same logic as above re: setting this right on 7 - odds were exactly the same. Butler only managed 5 last game but as I mentioned prior to that game, his passing numbers with Dragic not playing are pretty compelling. The Dragon is once again sitting tonight, so I think Butler's assist numbers will most likely revert to something more like the five games prior to his last where he had at least 9 every night.

Good luck!