Team,
Welcome to Tuesday. Nice little earn yesterday with a 2-1 day and Butler continuing to earn us cash. Unfortunately Harden crept over his total with his last shot to remind me why I hate under but hey, can't win em all.
Nikola Jokic Over 7.5 Assists
I mentioned a few weeks ago when betting on Jokic that he goes through periods of dominant scoring and periods of dominant passing. At the moment he appears to be working his way into one of the latter. After nine consecutive games of single figure assists and a six-game run in which he went 6, 4, 3, 3, 5, 6, the Joker has started passing again, going 12, 6, 12, 9 and 10 in his last five. In other good news, Will Barton will miss his second game in a row while Millsap will also sit. The Nugs still have Monte Morris and Murray to hold onto the ball a little, but overall the Joker should have the ball in his hands more and given his mindset of late, will be accumulating plenty of dimes.
Enes Kanter Over 13.5 Points
Boy do I like this one. I actually put double my normal stake on it which I rarely do. Couple of things going in Kanter's favour for this game - firstly, OKC is very little. Horford has been playing the five and they have been getting demolished pretty regularly by centres - in their last six games, Naz Reid has put up 27 and 19, Montrezl Harrell has gone for 20+ twice and Jokic has done his normal thing against them. Kanter is the kind of guy who can capitalise on size mismatches because he can't do much outside the paint, and he will likely look to crash the offensive boards against a smaller opponent too - when they played OKC a few weeks ago he had 23 boards, 8 of which were offensive. An added bonus is that Harry Giles will miss this game, meaning the Blazers now have just Kanter available to play at the five. They will of course play small ball for some of the game, with Melo in the game and Covington at the five, but I expect Kanter to get good minutes and be fairly dominant when he's on the floor.
Kyle Kuzma Over 14.5 Points
Another one I like a lot. Davis is out for a couple of weeks, and when he misses Kuz is probably the player who benefits the most. AD has missed five games this year - in one of them Kuz managed just 6, but in the other four he has had 15, 20, 20 and 22. On top of that, Kuzma is coming off games in which he has scored 19 and 20 points - and Davis played in those. AND, even better, he has gone just 3-12 from deep in those two games, so he's hardly just on a hot shooting streak. He will get minutes and shots tomorrow, and should make the most of a poor Timberwolves defence.
Kyrie Irving Over 27.5 Points
I was on the wrong side of the KD-being-out conundrum yesterday, taking Harden's inflated under instead of Kyrie's tantalising over, and while I think Harden's total is too high still, I won't make the same mistake twice. Irving has typically been the major beneficiary of KD's absence on this new Nets team - in the five games since Harden arrived that Durant has missed, Kyrie has scored 38, 25, 27, 35 and 40. Obviously that's only three overs out of five games, but his average there of 33 is notable. He takes a lot of shots without KD and coming off back-to-back big games without him, is set for another big one.
Good luck!
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