This line doesn't make sense. It says there's a good chance Luka is won't play or is severely hobbled, he's fine as we saw. A bogus "questionable" injury report released earlier today means nothing. He just played his best/most efficient game of the playoffs on standard 41 mins. Besides, """injured""" and undervalued teams have been an ATS machine these playoffs and historically.
The line for game 1 in OKC was 4, gm 2 +5. When you have lines in the 4-5 range on the road, they generally stay 4-5 when you swing back home (Pacers opening line today before Anunobdy was out, Knicks/Sixers series, Den/Minn, Suns/Bucks 2021, etc). So if the Mavs are +4.5 in OKC, they should be -4.5 at home saying this is basically an even series, and that's true as the pre-series odds were about -115/-105
Conclusion? This line is off by about 2-2.5 points.
Now, factor that OKC has ZERO (0) playoff experience and were just cruising on a 5 game playoff winning streak to start their careers, now they get smacked for the first time in their life. A dweeb of a coach also with ZERO experience, on the road vs some seasoned killers and a champion (Kidd included) who've brought it together.
Same Mavs formula from round 1 - embarrassing loss on road gm 1, statement game gm 2, come home game 3 cruise to a win.
X-factor - Hardaway Jr off the bench has returned to top form after playing like shit coming off injury.
Continue to get contributions from PJ Wash and others - then you know Kyrie will have a fantastic game after a shitfest.
Situationally or odds wise, this all points to Mavs. Line will close at -3.5/4 when Luka is confirmed. The line should be Mavs -5. Mavs in 6
Good info 
Hot Forum Topics
