You see a lot of value in 1 particular team and you bet a lot on that team for 1 reason or another... The team ends up losing against the spread and you cannot believe what you are seeing... Now it may leave a bitter taste in your mouth for a long time...
The following game your same team plays a lesser team and the books may have adjusted... This time around most bettors would want to win their money back and may even see more value this time around... Add in a little vengence So what do they do? They double on the next game... Im sure many people has fallen into that trap many times...
Having said all that,, its fine and dandy,, its all in the past... But if you were to bet double the amount on the opposite side you saw that same situation... You would be ahead, "im generalizing...
The hard part to all this is putting it on paper... And doing a count... One thing people need to realize, is that books know what you were heavy on the night before...
In the nba,, i will give you a hint... I will start with The GS warriors...
The spurs was a 2 point favorite the night before and ends up losing to the blakeless Lac team... A couple nights later,, Gs splashes points at the spurs at +8,, this time around books knew exactly where to set this line to obtain most of the money on one side being on the spurs(the losing team).... This was my play of the year,, i had the warriors and the under for a small play... Now whether or not it was rigged is one thing... When the spurs won the championship last year it seems as though ,, they are doing gods work this year,, tanking games against the spread at a really high rate... Yes they maybe over rated or even flat out old,, but this was only in one year...
So for future reference... Anytime you get that feeling of revenge and hate because you or your team has been done wrong... They will get done wrong again... Sure there are exceptions to these rules,, but without mining all this data you could never put a number on it like i can... Peace
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Example,
You see a lot of value in 1 particular team and you bet a lot on that team for 1 reason or another... The team ends up losing against the spread and you cannot believe what you are seeing... Now it may leave a bitter taste in your mouth for a long time...
The following game your same team plays a lesser team and the books may have adjusted... This time around most bettors would want to win their money back and may even see more value this time around... Add in a little vengence So what do they do? They double on the next game... Im sure many people has fallen into that trap many times...
Having said all that,, its fine and dandy,, its all in the past... But if you were to bet double the amount on the opposite side you saw that same situation... You would be ahead, "im generalizing...
The hard part to all this is putting it on paper... And doing a count... One thing people need to realize, is that books know what you were heavy on the night before...
In the nba,, i will give you a hint... I will start with The GS warriors...
The spurs was a 2 point favorite the night before and ends up losing to the blakeless Lac team... A couple nights later,, Gs splashes points at the spurs at +8,, this time around books knew exactly where to set this line to obtain most of the money on one side being on the spurs(the losing team).... This was my play of the year,, i had the warriors and the under for a small play... Now whether or not it was rigged is one thing... When the spurs won the championship last year it seems as though ,, they are doing gods work this year,, tanking games against the spread at a really high rate... Yes they maybe over rated or even flat out old,, but this was only in one year...
So for future reference... Anytime you get that feeling of revenge and hate because you or your team has been done wrong... They will get done wrong again... Sure there are exceptions to these rules,, but without mining all this data you could never put a number on it like i can... Peace
You may puke a few times in doing so... I call it a detox,, to break away from having a favorite team all together.. To handicap the game with out your typical fan biases... To take the teams that you hate... If you can train yourself to do this... You have a shot at doing this for a living...
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Might i add,
You may puke a few times in doing so... I call it a detox,, to break away from having a favorite team all together.. To handicap the game with out your typical fan biases... To take the teams that you hate... If you can train yourself to do this... You have a shot at doing this for a living...
Valid point. They came out of the all-star break engines roaring. Not sure if I want to take them in a B2B against an Indiana team that is progressing? Your thoughts
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Valid point. They came out of the all-star break engines roaring. Not sure if I want to take them in a B2B against an Indiana team that is progressing? Your thoughts
Teams that have beaten Orlando against the spread is a -6... And boston has just beaten orlando... That's one draw back... However this kind fits in the same category as what i mentioned... There are alot of pacer fans because deep down inside they know how deep this pacer team is even without Paul George... Indiana likes to show up against the best teams.. And they play like crap against bad teams... milwaukee just back doored the pacers... People are probably pissed off... lol
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Teams that have beaten Orlando against the spread is a -6... And boston has just beaten orlando... That's one draw back... However this kind fits in the same category as what i mentioned... There are alot of pacer fans because deep down inside they know how deep this pacer team is even without Paul George... Indiana likes to show up against the best teams.. And they play like crap against bad teams... milwaukee just back doored the pacers... People are probably pissed off... lol
Thanks for the insight. Going to monitor the spread for a minute and see which way it moves. Its +8.5 now for celts. Good luck tonight and thanks for sharing
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Thanks for the insight. Going to monitor the spread for a minute and see which way it moves. Its +8.5 now for celts. Good luck tonight and thanks for sharing
And you know what... No one is high on boston this year.. And no one is high on unders for gs... This time around... look for teams that can't score playing against good defenses to go over... And teams that can score against a team with no defense to go under...
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And you know what... No one is high on boston this year.. And no one is high on unders for gs... This time around... look for teams that can't score playing against good defenses to go over... And teams that can score against a team with no defense to go under...
Thanks for the insight. Going to monitor the spread for a minute and see which way it moves. Its +8.5 now for celts. Good luck tonight and thanks for sharing
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Thanks for the insight. Going to monitor the spread for a minute and see which way it moves. Its +8.5 now for celts. Good luck tonight and thanks for sharing
If I understand what you are saying then my logic for a bet from Monday night makes sense.
Last Sunday the Clippers back doored GS at the last second. A lot of people got burned on that.The next night they were laying five at Phoenix. I figured most wouldn't touch GS after getting screwed. I pounded them with the under confidently.
Is that to a degree what you are saying?
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If I understand what you are saying then my logic for a bet from Monday night makes sense.
Last Sunday the Clippers back doored GS at the last second. A lot of people got burned on that.The next night they were laying five at Phoenix. I figured most wouldn't touch GS after getting screwed. I pounded them with the under confidently.
If I understand what you are saying then my logic for a bet from Monday night makes sense.
Last Sunday the Clippers back doored GS at the last second. A lot of people got burned on that.The next night they were laying five at Phoenix. I figured most wouldn't touch GS after getting screwed. I pounded them with the under confidently.
Is that to a degree what you are saying?
Yes that is one type of game... Primarily you have to look out for games that are being aired nationally and travel situations... If you guys saw the MIL/IND game... You know who got all the calls... Small market teams are the ones that no one ever bets on simply because they are smaller market teams... However they will still have 5 professionals on the floor night in night out... marque teams will almost always be over rated... Some refs keep games closer... That in itself is a whole separate set of data... Which all has its own value... The key is weighing those factors and variables as best as possible...
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Quote Originally Posted by FiatLux4:
If I understand what you are saying then my logic for a bet from Monday night makes sense.
Last Sunday the Clippers back doored GS at the last second. A lot of people got burned on that.The next night they were laying five at Phoenix. I figured most wouldn't touch GS after getting screwed. I pounded them with the under confidently.
Is that to a degree what you are saying?
Yes that is one type of game... Primarily you have to look out for games that are being aired nationally and travel situations... If you guys saw the MIL/IND game... You know who got all the calls... Small market teams are the ones that no one ever bets on simply because they are smaller market teams... However they will still have 5 professionals on the floor night in night out... marque teams will almost always be over rated... Some refs keep games closer... That in itself is a whole separate set of data... Which all has its own value... The key is weighing those factors and variables as best as possible...
But aside from all the aspects i just mentioned... I also grade as many games as i can... I even mark the ones that i think are fishy and map this out to the best of my knowledge... So when there's many games on the board,, i have data already infront of me to make wiser decisions...
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But aside from all the aspects i just mentioned... I also grade as many games as i can... I even mark the ones that i think are fishy and map this out to the best of my knowledge... So when there's many games on the board,, i have data already infront of me to make wiser decisions...
Its like coding,, its being able to put a number or identifiers in different situations so you know what type of game it is... Public perception indeed plays a big role.. Why? Because no book is going to set a spread to lose money.. And its because of these inefficiencies is where you find the most value.. That is ofcoarse if its a circle game or some college game where the public knows more about the game than the books do...
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Its like coding,, its being able to put a number or identifiers in different situations so you know what type of game it is... Public perception indeed plays a big role.. Why? Because no book is going to set a spread to lose money.. And its because of these inefficiencies is where you find the most value.. That is ofcoarse if its a circle game or some college game where the public knows more about the game than the books do...
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