Good opportunity tonight in the NBA looking at a total. I haven't been posting much but I have been on a good run betting first quarter totals this past week. Tonight I like the matchup between the Rockets and the Kings. I think that the line is off by at least 2 points and I see value there, hopefully the game will cooperate and Dillon Brooks wont shoot too many shots.
When you look at the Kings, they are a push the pace kind of a team, even with the firing of Mike Brown. De'Aaron Fox is back from injury and he has been known to push pace and shoot threes. Malik Monk is out for the game but Keon Ellis and Kevin Heurter are both good backups who can score/shoot. If you look at Houston, they have won their last 5 games. In each of those games, they have put up the following points
1. 119 points (36 point first quarter)
2. 135 points (20 point first quarter)
3. 119 points (45 point first quarter)
4. 120 points (23 point first quarter)
5. 128 points (28 point first quarter)
This small sample averages out to 30 points in the past 5 games. I can count on the Kings to put up 25 in the first quarter at home, with or without Malik Monk. Both squads will push the pace. If you look at the last time these two teams played, the final score was 120-111, and the kings won. They score only 49 points combined in the first quarter of that meeting, but both teams shot particularly bad. If you look at the third quarter of that game (3rd Q usually mimics the first Q) as guys are rested and coming in fresh, the two teams put up a combined 71 points.
THe number seems off to me and should be closer to 59 for the quarter. The total opened at 226.5 for the game and was bet down to 225 and some sites even hit 224 before there was some buy back on the over. Even with the total being 225, that would mean that the first quarter total should be 225/4 = 56.25. Therefore, at 55 points, we are still getting over a point of value on this total.
Rockets/Kings 1st Q OVER 55 (-110)
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Good opportunity tonight in the NBA looking at a total. I haven't been posting much but I have been on a good run betting first quarter totals this past week. Tonight I like the matchup between the Rockets and the Kings. I think that the line is off by at least 2 points and I see value there, hopefully the game will cooperate and Dillon Brooks wont shoot too many shots.
When you look at the Kings, they are a push the pace kind of a team, even with the firing of Mike Brown. De'Aaron Fox is back from injury and he has been known to push pace and shoot threes. Malik Monk is out for the game but Keon Ellis and Kevin Heurter are both good backups who can score/shoot. If you look at Houston, they have won their last 5 games. In each of those games, they have put up the following points
1. 119 points (36 point first quarter)
2. 135 points (20 point first quarter)
3. 119 points (45 point first quarter)
4. 120 points (23 point first quarter)
5. 128 points (28 point first quarter)
This small sample averages out to 30 points in the past 5 games. I can count on the Kings to put up 25 in the first quarter at home, with or without Malik Monk. Both squads will push the pace. If you look at the last time these two teams played, the final score was 120-111, and the kings won. They score only 49 points combined in the first quarter of that meeting, but both teams shot particularly bad. If you look at the third quarter of that game (3rd Q usually mimics the first Q) as guys are rested and coming in fresh, the two teams put up a combined 71 points.
THe number seems off to me and should be closer to 59 for the quarter. The total opened at 226.5 for the game and was bet down to 225 and some sites even hit 224 before there was some buy back on the over. Even with the total being 225, that would mean that the first quarter total should be 225/4 = 56.25. Therefore, at 55 points, we are still getting over a point of value on this total.
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