@HPowerCro
PRAs are kind of a fascinating betting aspect of the NBA.
Obvious issue with PRA OVER prop bets is playing time... if the game ends up being a blow out and the prop player is a starter your bet on the OVER probably loses 9x out of 10. Starters on both sides tend to sit out the entire 4th qtr in these situations.
Something to keep in mind, players coming back from injury usually don't play full minutes either their 1st/2nd game back making the line look better than it is. Sometimes a player won't touch the court in the 2nd half at all. The books are aware of these unknowns, it ends up being baked into the number which ironically makes the bet look even more enticing for the recreational better who jumps on the OVER because the line looks too low and in the end the OVER bet loses.
There is always a chance a player gets injured. Some players seem to get injured all the time.
On the UNDER side of PRA betting is where things get interesting and has the potential to be far more profitable over a long period of time. IF you know or highly suspect the game will be a blowout and the PRA player is a starter, you will have a massive edge betting UNDER in the PRA prop market.
This is why it always pays to look at the spread on games you are betting PRA on and try to figure out if you agree with it or not. OR follow some of the better nba cappers on covers and trust them to be on the right side. NBA blowouts while unpredictable CAN be predicted with a high level of accuracy by some cappers.
Hypothetical EXAMPLE: spread is Cavs -10.5 vs Washington tonight, if top betters on covers are taking the Washington +10.5 side it is probably safe to place a PRA OVER bet on a Cavs starter, however if cappers are expecting the Cavs to win by 30 you would be taking a big risk placing a PRA OVER bet. In that case taking a PRA UNDER bet is far more likely to hit than it normally would.
Final point on PRA UNDERs, it pays to watch the games. A lot of players take the court injured. If you are sure it will eventually sideline them then once again you have an edge.
Books can't predict when a player will or won't get hurt or aggravate an injury. Lines are set largely based off of data points, stats, and algorithms and not by people actually watching the games.
But personally I would probably just stay away from PRA bets altogether and stick with the easier props to predict a side on such as: points, assists, or blocks.
I usually avoid betting on rebounding props due to the extreme randomness of the NBA... any team can shoot 30%-60% on any given night, hard to predict which way the ball will bounce, game blowouts etc. If both teams are making a majority of their shots nobody will get rebounds. If both teams are fouling each other like crazy nobody will get rebounds.