Tyler Herro out tonight per the Miami Herald.
The Heat are now 1-4 SU last 5, 2-3 ATS, 6 straight UNDERS. They have been held under 100 points in 3 of those games, scored 103 in the other 2.
Nuggets have 7 straight wins now, 5-2 ATS, 5-2 UNDER. The 216 total tonight is in fact the lowest of the year for Denver seeing it once before in a loss to Dallas that went Over, 220. It is also the lowest total for them since last playing the Heat in the regular season, 217.5, a 4 point win for Denver, 220 points also, 112-108.
Excluding the 1st round in the playoffs, when the 1st game has gone Under the total, game 2 is 43-25-1 last 69 games on the OVER.
Game 1 total was 219 now down to 216, that's a fairly steep adjustment despite the fact that these 2 are a combined 11-2 on the Under last 13 games. It's seems logical that bettors have taken advantage of playing the under and oddsmakers aren't happy about that.
Miami should be fairly acclimated to the altitude by now and strategically have to be more aggressive offensively. That should lead to more FT attempts, 2 in game 1, really, but also could lead to some TO's and easy fastbreak baskets for Denver. When Miami won the first 3 games against Boston they scored 128, 123, and 111 points. They know Denver, unlike Boston, can score points, alot of points. You have to outscore them. Not sure they can but I expect a much better effort on the offensive end from the Heat.
Denver now has their legs under them after the long layoff. They have a size matchup they can and did exploit. They're likely going to shoot better from outside, as is Miami too, who missed numerous open shots.
I don't see Denver losing tonight, oddsmakers even kept the same line basically, -8.5, though I laid -9 in a game 1 win. That caught my eye, you'd think it might have been 7-8 with alot of expectations for a better effort from Miami tonight. I can't touch the side but I do believe both teams will be more efficient on offense, not that Denver was bad but better outside shooting, both teams, and I'd be shocked if MIA doesn't get to the FT line at least 20 times. Time for Jimmy Buckets to do just that too after a less than Jimmy like performance game 1. I see points tonight, and the oddsmakers getting a little payback on the Under bettors-
OVER 216, -110
As always good luck to all!
great info sir 
. Big win for Miami, happy for them, didn't think they could do it. Now we have a series. And thanks to everyone for your well wishes!
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