Hedge or Not?

I currently have a Celtics 4-1 series bet at +285 . Should I now hedge this bet with a bet on Celtics in game 4?

Looking for thoughts!

Thanks 

I would a little. Very tough to beat a team 4 times straight but you'll never know. 

@Tailer187

just IMO but the answer lies in your risk profile. if your a gambler, no hedge. if you cant handle the L, hedge back the amount you wagered so there is no L. & if you feel strong the celts will sweep, put a large sum on the celts that overwelms the L you will take on the +285.

all i really did was provide options. my best advice would be to take away the L. guaranteeing that you stay even is winnings well spent.

@joshfactor

 Thank you for your thoughts!

Well, on the one hand they showed the stats on another 3-0 series think it was Mavs Wolves and it was something like of 90 series it was 50ish sweeps and 20ish 4-1s. So the majority of them were sweeps and the vast majority within 5s.

On the other hand, a 'true' hedge is only when you cannot lose both bets. Based on the above (and what we have seen) it's highly likely that it's one of those 2 results. But there's always a chance they somehow win 2 back to back and you lose both. I don't see it happening, I see a sweep but you just don't know for certain, anything can happen.

It would depend for me on the size of the bet. I probably would only hedge with the size of the bet, you get very slight plus money with Boston again on the moneyline. Though I still have a tendency to take any points under 3 even+1.5 on the off chance Dallas survives by hitting a buzzer beater to win by 1, you could possibly cash both bets.

There's only been 4 finals sweeps since 1995 almost 30 years, been a ton of 4-1s and 4-2s. But the Celtics look fully capable of it, they weren't even really out of 2nd gear last night.

Thanks NBL!— probably just hedge to make a small profit— as long as series ends 4-0 or 4-1.

My thoughts are always on the side of assuring a profit - even if it's a lesser amount, profit is still profit.  No money, no wagers.

@TheBlackKnight

 Thanks BK!

Although  there have been many 4-1  4-2 series. I believe if you check the history of the finals only, there have been almost exclusively sweeps when ahead 3-0. I say , almost , there may be an exception. After spending so much energy getting to the finals and then knowing for certain that you have lost to a superior team it's almost impossible to summon up the energy to take game 4 in a futile gesture. The Champs are high and ready to celebrate the losers want the pain to end.

Everyone , including the NBA and the networks want the beatings to end

@LVPrince

 That's interesting, I didn't actually check finals only. I do think a sweep is most likely but... so do most people.

Luka's comments about 'getting back to having fun', the likely reluctance of Kyrie to have to endure the finals loss in front of the Boston fans who hate and love to clown him, and the fact no one has come back from 3-0 leads me to think they might just give up or if not give up, play a lot looser.

You could see last game they were passing up shots close to the rim and passing outside too much like they were afraid of the Celtics interior defense.

I think if they do play looser we could finally get an over. Must check the sweeped finals see were they high scoring and if the 3-0s did all end in sweeps.

Supersonics came back against Bulls  down 3-0 and went 4-2 in 96

So looking back to 1994 it seems there was 1 series went 3-0 and ended in 4-1, in 2017. There was 4 sweeps.

So yeah the majority of 3-0 teams have swept. Basically 4 out 5 times. All the other 4-1s the team won game 1 or 2 most times.

But, that doesn't mean it's a lock. I've been at too long and seen it happen so many times take a 'trend' that is 4-1 or 15-1 and the law of averages kicks in and the pendulum swings the other way. But the Celtics undefeated on the road and 10 wins in a row. They dominated all year in the East and have done so in the playoffs too.

If I was an oddsmaker I surely would have the Celtics favored in this game but they seem loathe to ever change much from one home game line to the next.

@NutinButtLove

 Loose??? Lol do you know how tight their buttholes are tomorrow? All the pressure is on them

Absolutely, no such thing as a lock and if something is widely published and talked about, it really becomes a go against. The spread is consistent as usual, otherwise it would tip off a book's bias. If I am the only one that mentions this, it's viable. If ESPN starts  shouting about it, it's  not.

@NutinButtLove

 thats a good point. this is not a true hedge. there is a not-zero chance we get to a game 6 then its not a hedge but a disaster.

OP dont bother hedging. let it ride. The celts are good but they are amazing at letting leads slip. can easily see them sleeping out this game should it get ugly in 1H.