HOU @ DAL -- Total 220 PTS ?! Looks like way UNDER to me

Question

There are 4 interesting NBA games tonight, but the one that I'm mostly interested with is Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks, both of these teams are from Texas, same timezone for them, game starts at 2am UK time.

Last game Houston won 130-128 after having a 1st quarter of 78 points! (and 59 pts in the 2nd, making it 137 pts in the 1st half).

2nd half was also full of points ending the game with 258 pts in total.

The 2 previous game ended with totals of 210 and 226 points respectively.

On average if you take the last 3 games combine the totals you get an average of 231 points and nevertheless the line is 220.

Why?
Because all pre-playoff games between the two ended with much lower totals:

October 7, 2014: 111-108 (219)
November 22, 2014: 95-92 (187)
January 28, 2015: 99-94 (193)
April 2, 2015: 108-101 (209)
February 20, 2015: 100-111 (211)

So the line is quite high for tonight - 220 points - add the fact it's an elimination game so you can expect some defense from Dallas ... it's quite a psychological bet to go against some "momentum" here but I don't see it ending close to 220 ...

What do you guys think?

dontknowhowtobe · Answer

There are 4 interesting NBA games tonight, but the one that I'm mostly interested with is Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks, both of these teams are from Texas, same timezone for them, game starts at 2am UK time.

Last game Houston won 130-128 after having a 1st quarter of 78 points! (and 59 pts in the 2nd, making it 137 pts in the 1st half).

2nd half was also full of points ending the game with 258 pts in total.

The 2 previous game ended with totals of 210 and 226 points respectively.

On average if you take the last 3 games combine the totals you get an average of 231 points and nevertheless the line is 220.

Why?
Because all pre-playoff games between the two ended with much lower totals:

October 7, 2014: 111-108 (219)
November 22, 2014: 95-92 (187)
January 28, 2015: 99-94 (193)
April 2, 2015: 108-101 (209)
February 20, 2015: 100-111 (211)

So the line is quite high for tonight - 220 points - add the fact it's an elimination game so you can expect some defense from Dallas ... it's quite a psychological bet to go against some "momentum" here but I don't see it ending close to 220 ...

What do you guys think?

sicknesscity · Answer

I would take a small shot at it but that's it. Carlisle is bitching like a moron about the refs when his team has been awful all year at defending. Most people on this forum didn't take them seriously in the playoffs because of that. I do think they'll play hard but his ability as a coach should really be questioned. At some point it's the sets you're running and the positioning of your players for rebounds or picks. They look like they don't know what they're doing.

dontknowhowtobe · Answer

Yes, you make lots of sense and Dallas should be demotivated after putting so much effort (128 points!) just to lose it in the end ...Houston might score 120 points if they run it extremely fast but I can&#x27;t see Dallas going over 100 points tonight ... at best 95 points at most, this is elimination so probably somewhere around 110 - 95 is more like a possible result in my opinion ... again ... it&#x27;s betting and no one knows but I think 220 is quite high despite the last game and many bettors tend to look only on the last game and not on the entire statistics as a whole.

shakey12381 · Answer

Just lay the points

dontknowhowtobe · Answer

I prefer totals than sides.What "sicknesscity" said makes lots of sense and it&#x27;s likely that Houston would be more motivated to destroy Dallas tonight, but you never know if their coach Carlisle would bring up some surprises ... it&#x27;s elimination, last game Carlisle was upset about the officials, probably this time the chances of seeing so many free throws are lesser and so are the chances for Dallas to be less defensive than the previous game.Put on top of all that the statistics showing you the two teams had hard time reaching 220 points (except for the last game) then ask yourself how likely are they to reach 220 points again?Betting on totals is cool, you don&#x27;t pick sides so you don&#x27;t need to worry about swings in the game and who leads it ... it has more a trendish approach which is why I like it more.If anyone else has more insight please shoot it.

forty9ersfan80 · Answer

it goes over 220 both these teams just dont play any defense. 120-111 type game

dontknowhowtobe · Answer

There is always a possibility for that, but taking into account this is elimination it might go different than many expect.

guyhopestowin · Answer

this is last game of sunday night, so this makes high possible for under game also. on sunday night, as you know all bettors like to go over, and throughout the season we all saw the result. but this is a biased statistics, because lakers generally played last game on sunday, and lakers offense is awful, eliminating lakers games, i think this trend still holds

Spotplayerspot · Answer

Be careful here, "Hack-a-Howard" and such may come into play just to extend the game!

forty9ersfan80 · Answer

Nailed it 121-109 actual final

HOU @ DAL --> Total 220 PTS ?! Looks like way UNDER to me

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