I bet $500 preseason on the Thunder to win the Championship at 5-1. I'm trying to weigh my options as to hedging, but I don't think there's anything I can do unless they win tonight.
If they do, any guessing as to what the series price will be, with two home games for OKC, with them laying about 5 points in each game?
My guess is probably Miami -140ish for game 6, and if OKC wins that one, OKC -200 for game 7.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
If OKC wins tonight, it will be interesting.
I bet $500 preseason on the Thunder to win the Championship at 5-1. I'm trying to weigh my options as to hedging, but I don't think there's anything I can do unless they win tonight.
If they do, any guessing as to what the series price will be, with two home games for OKC, with them laying about 5 points in each game?
My guess is probably Miami -140ish for game 6, and if OKC wins that one, OKC -200 for game 7.
I would say about Miami -180? Here is my reasoning. They are minus 430 right now and favored tonight. If they lose tonight, they will be 4-5 point dogs in OKC. That would mean a little more than half this 430 has to be in tonights game, thus minus 160-200? whadda ya think?
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I would say about Miami -180? Here is my reasoning. They are minus 430 right now and favored tonight. If they lose tonight, they will be 4-5 point dogs in OKC. That would mean a little more than half this 430 has to be in tonights game, thus minus 160-200? whadda ya think?
When Miami was down to Boston 3-2.. It was Miami +140.. which meant Boston was -160 with the 3-2 lead.
Based off that I would say they would bump the favorite up a little bit to -180 since Miami is clearly better then Boston.. and OKC would be about +150..
I am in the same boat. I am putting some on Thunder ML tn.. BUT the ONLY real way to hedge anything is with a Thunder win tn. Then we can consider going series line with the Heat to guarentee some $$$$$
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When Miami was down to Boston 3-2.. It was Miami +140.. which meant Boston was -160 with the 3-2 lead.
Based off that I would say they would bump the favorite up a little bit to -180 since Miami is clearly better then Boston.. and OKC would be about +150..
I am in the same boat. I am putting some on Thunder ML tn.. BUT the ONLY real way to hedge anything is with a Thunder win tn. Then we can consider going series line with the Heat to guarentee some $$$$$
We need a Thunder win tn and the Heat Series line to be as LOW as possible..... but I can't see it happening bc u know EVERYONE is going to be trying to hedge there bets
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We need a Thunder win tn and the Heat Series line to be as LOW as possible..... but I can't see it happening bc u know EVERYONE is going to be trying to hedge there bets
-180 sounds about right... but one thing you are forgetting, Moose... is that when the Bos/Mia series was 3-2, both teams had one home game remaining... if this one goes 3-2, OKC has both games at home...
as for hedging, at +500, you definitely have options, if you want to bail at this point...
let's say you have $100 on OKC at 5:1 (+500)... you can bet Miami to win game 5 at (-150) for $120... meaning if Miami wins tonight, you will get %80 of your original bet back...
if Miami loses tonight, you will now have $220 risked on OKC at roughly (+172)... which means going into game 6 you could make a wager to get all or most of your $220 back (depending on how strongly you feel either way) by betting Miami on the series line at the new price, which would most likely be in the -160 to -180 range...
just my two cents... take it or leave it, or tweak it to your own liking...
the other option is to ride out tonights game and hope OKC wins it, at which point you could get a good hedging opportunity going into game 6, where you will win money no matter who comes out on top...
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-180 sounds about right... but one thing you are forgetting, Moose... is that when the Bos/Mia series was 3-2, both teams had one home game remaining... if this one goes 3-2, OKC has both games at home...
as for hedging, at +500, you definitely have options, if you want to bail at this point...
let's say you have $100 on OKC at 5:1 (+500)... you can bet Miami to win game 5 at (-150) for $120... meaning if Miami wins tonight, you will get %80 of your original bet back...
if Miami loses tonight, you will now have $220 risked on OKC at roughly (+172)... which means going into game 6 you could make a wager to get all or most of your $220 back (depending on how strongly you feel either way) by betting Miami on the series line at the new price, which would most likely be in the -160 to -180 range...
just my two cents... take it or leave it, or tweak it to your own liking...
the other option is to ride out tonights game and hope OKC wins it, at which point you could get a good hedging opportunity going into game 6, where you will win money no matter who comes out on top...
bet enough at (-150) tonight that you would win back half of your original wager if Miami wins... if Miami loses tonight, you would then have OKC at (+300) to win the series (based on your total investment), with 2 games remaining, and you could hedge out enough to break even if Miami wins, or win money if OKC wins out...
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probably the best compromise is this...
bet enough at (-150) tonight that you would win back half of your original wager if Miami wins... if Miami loses tonight, you would then have OKC at (+300) to win the series (based on your total investment), with 2 games remaining, and you could hedge out enough to break even if Miami wins, or win money if OKC wins out...
-180? Wow I'm surprised, although it definitely could be, I feel like that would be a little high. Assuming it goes to game 6, Miami would be roughly +180 to +200 in each game (ML). With two shots to hit, I would think it would be lower.
+200 = 30 -35%%ish chance to win
30% - 35%ish chance to win X2
I have Miami at -125, with those odds, however, it needs to be factored in the hedging and backers and vegas perception, so I would have it at Miami -140, or -150 TOPS.
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-180? Wow I'm surprised, although it definitely could be, I feel like that would be a little high. Assuming it goes to game 6, Miami would be roughly +180 to +200 in each game (ML). With two shots to hit, I would think it would be lower.
+200 = 30 -35%%ish chance to win
30% - 35%ish chance to win X2
I have Miami at -125, with those odds, however, it needs to be factored in the hedging and backers and vegas perception, so I would have it at Miami -140, or -150 TOPS.
i agree Behind... i would put it at -160 personally, because i don't think Miami will be +200 or so in the final two games... i think it will be closer to +160... and like you said, the Vegas perception and putting some juice out there, keeps it a bit higher than -120 or -140, where it probably should be...
also Moose... remember that OKC is significantly better than Boston, so you have to factor that into your comparison...
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i agree Behind... i would put it at -160 personally, because i don't think Miami will be +200 or so in the final two games... i think it will be closer to +160... and like you said, the Vegas perception and putting some juice out there, keeps it a bit higher than -120 or -140, where it probably should be...
also Moose... remember that OKC is significantly better than Boston, so you have to factor that into your comparison...
I am in the same boat as you bro. I have a Gnote on OKC to win the title since the season started. I am an idiot for not hedging after game 1 or 2. Greed kept me from doing it I guess. I think we have to wait and hope they win tonight!
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I am in the same boat as you bro. I have a Gnote on OKC to win the title since the season started. I am an idiot for not hedging after game 1 or 2. Greed kept me from doing it I guess. I think we have to wait and hope they win tonight!
Hahaha me too. I was thinking about it before the start of the series, but after I watched game 1, I had no doubts about the series. In hindsight, a jackass move, since all I had to do was put a couple hundo on it and gurantee a good amount of profit.
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Hahaha me too. I was thinking about it before the start of the series, but after I watched game 1, I had no doubts about the series. In hindsight, a jackass move, since all I had to do was put a couple hundo on it and gurantee a good amount of profit.
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