** IH8ColdWeather Mavs and Clippers Game 7 **

I am a Dallas guy and long time Mavericks fan. You guys have seen me cap a lot of games for and against both the Dallas Cowboys and Dallas Mavericks. Both teams (especially the Cowboys) are public favorites with inflated lines which results in great value. Despite my hometown affiliation with these teams, I have no allegiance to any team when it comes to capping and my bankroll.......

I have obviously watched each game in this series and for the first time in history the road team has won each game. The series is tied 3-3. If you will recall, the Mavs lost to the Clippers last year 4-2. They may be demoralized after letting the last game get away from them but that won't stop them from coming out and giving it their all in this last game. The Clippers have all the momentum. Nobody even expected this series to go to 7 games. One thing that has been proven over the last 6 games however is that the Clippers cannot limit Luka. Pat Beverely has essentially been taken out of the lineup and Rondo cannot guard Luka either. Even PG has been having trouble. The only real defensive option is Kawhi Leonard. In order for the Clippers to win in a blowout, they need all role players to have great games including Reggie Jackson, Nick Batum, Zubac and Marcus Morris AND the Mavs have to have an off shooting night. 

I think that this line is over inflated and should be closer to 4. There is tremendous value in taking the Mavs at +6.5 points in a game 7 on the road, especially after they have proven that they can win on the road ALL THREE TIMES. The Mavs may (and likely) will lose, but the line is either Mavs + points or nothing. 

BOL 

@Ih8coldweather

 I agree that DAL +6-7 looks like it has a lot of value. Because of the road games were all won by both teams I guess odd makes are not worried about that aspect... And in turn did not account for it in the line.  I think the value here is DAL +6-7, never the less I'm being pulled toured a LAC 11+ points blow out. I'm going to try LAC -7. I think Luka has a good game but the MAVS bench and team continues to disappoint.

When people think there's "value" in good spread lines because it is given to capable teams, it usually turns the other way around. In the playoffs, it's good to bet against the value.

The Mavs don't get anywhere near the inflated lines the Cowboys do. I'm not from Dallas but have been a Cowboys fan since I was 5. I never bet against them but i've gave out fade Cowboys picks a million times over the years based on inflated lines. I think they get the most inflated lines in sports.

@StumpTownStu

 "americas team"...makes sense

them and the yankees, and maybe the dodgers more recently

If the road team won ALL 3 times, then why the line is close to 7??? Clippers might blow the Mavs out this time. Pass for me. 

@Dynasty4

 good point, vegas expecting mavs/doncic to choke by the looks of that line

kawhi also shows up for big-games

This is where a young team like Mavs fall apart, they had their shot in game 6, its all over now, Clipps pull away late win by 13

Everyone has the Mavs losing in a blowout. Just like game 1, right? There is a reason this series went to 7 games. You guys don’t think a Dallas team can keep it within seven? 

They have a superstar and role players just like the Clippers and I think Luka will ball put like he always does.

I also think that the Sixers obviously are not the same team without Embid. They are good, but they are not Elite while the Hawks, who are finally healthy, have been flying under the radar this entire time.

Give me the Hawks and Mavs today. 

@Ih8coldweather

 spread or ML

6.5 points seems like a lot considering everything

@dubz4dummyz

 Spread.

@Ih8coldweather

 U seem to lose alot, idk why u post your plays if u giving your sheep more money to lose

@Wrecking_Force

 Haha this mook again. Bro you seen I8coldweather record. Would be nice to see you post plays since you got so much balls behind a screen calling ppl out. 

Yeah, the yankees have tapered off in the last few seasons. The Dodgers still get crazy inflated lines. The Cubs have at times. And the RedSox. I'm sure there are a few NHL teams but I don't wager NHL. A few 3 or 4 years back the Dodgers were a RL covering machine though. You could take the insane lines and take the RL.

i think the Clippers cover and am on the 1H. I want the Mavs to win but think the Clippers will.

@Wrecking_Force

 Weren’t you in REHAB recently?

@Wrecking_Force

 …….

yeah, Hawks +4.5 is looking really bad right now.