FYI - Got smoked yesterday going 0-3. I still like the plays and think the line was +EV, couple rough shooting outings and Grizzlies/Celtics decide to score for 70 in the second quarter. Oh well, we move on. Hoping to bounce back today. Initially there wasn't a lot of games that I liked. I try to avoid teams playing in a back-to-back, especially if they aren't in Playoff contention and have nothing to play for. Little motivation for these teams who are checked out, resting key guys, and entering the Cooper Flagg contest.
Initial leans were:
Hawks -5
Orlando -4
Denver -2 (steamed to -3.5)
Official Plays:
Hawks TT 1Q OVER 29.5 1Q (-140)
Hawks -1.5 1Q OVER (-115)
Warriors/Grizzlies 1Q OVER 58.5
I like the Hawks at home. They have been playing well. They score easily and Trae Young is shooting well and facilitating. They like to jump out on teams at home. They practically average 30 points in a quarter and they are coming off 3 road games. They have scored over 30 points in 5 out of their last 6 games. Portland doesn't play much defense, they are missing Jeremi Grant, Robert Williamson, and Scoot Henderson, all who played in their only meeting where the Hawks lost by 4 on the road. The Hawks scored 33 in the first quarter in the game by the way. I just see the Hawks jumping out to a lead and I like the team total over 29.5 which is why it is so heavily juiced. I think it correlates well with the Hawks -1.5. I also like the Warriors to continue rolling, after they just smashed the Spurs and Grizzlies have been suspect on defense as of late. I liked them in the over against Boston and I still think that 58.5 is kind of low, even with the coaching change. I could see this starting out as a run and gun type of a game. No official plays yet on Hawks FG, Orlando FG, or Denver, as they are all steaming
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
FYI - Got smoked yesterday going 0-3. I still like the plays and think the line was +EV, couple rough shooting outings and Grizzlies/Celtics decide to score for 70 in the second quarter. Oh well, we move on. Hoping to bounce back today. Initially there wasn't a lot of games that I liked. I try to avoid teams playing in a back-to-back, especially if they aren't in Playoff contention and have nothing to play for. Little motivation for these teams who are checked out, resting key guys, and entering the Cooper Flagg contest.
Initial leans were:
Hawks -5
Orlando -4
Denver -2 (steamed to -3.5)
Official Plays:
Hawks TT 1Q OVER 29.5 1Q (-140)
Hawks -1.5 1Q OVER (-115)
Warriors/Grizzlies 1Q OVER 58.5
I like the Hawks at home. They have been playing well. They score easily and Trae Young is shooting well and facilitating. They like to jump out on teams at home. They practically average 30 points in a quarter and they are coming off 3 road games. They have scored over 30 points in 5 out of their last 6 games. Portland doesn't play much defense, they are missing Jeremi Grant, Robert Williamson, and Scoot Henderson, all who played in their only meeting where the Hawks lost by 4 on the road. The Hawks scored 33 in the first quarter in the game by the way. I just see the Hawks jumping out to a lead and I like the team total over 29.5 which is why it is so heavily juiced. I think it correlates well with the Hawks -1.5. I also like the Warriors to continue rolling, after they just smashed the Spurs and Grizzlies have been suspect on defense as of late. I liked them in the over against Boston and I still think that 58.5 is kind of low, even with the coaching change. I could see this starting out as a run and gun type of a game. No official plays yet on Hawks FG, Orlando FG, or Denver, as they are all steaming
The sloppiest team and most frustrating to watch. Lots of turnovers, zero defense, can't crash the board. Makes you think of when they had Clint Capella who would man the middle and was an excellent shot blocker and rebounder. They are absolutely missing that. This team will get bounced in the Play-in because they really do play up or down to the level of their competition.
I lean Denver in the Nuggets/T-wolves game, because the TimberWolves are missing Naz Reid and DivinChenzo, and they travel to Denver where they have to play at altitude.
1
Sorry fam....the Hawks absolutely killed us...
The sloppiest team and most frustrating to watch. Lots of turnovers, zero defense, can't crash the board. Makes you think of when they had Clint Capella who would man the middle and was an excellent shot blocker and rebounder. They are absolutely missing that. This team will get bounced in the Play-in because they really do play up or down to the level of their competition.
I lean Denver in the Nuggets/T-wolves game, because the TimberWolves are missing Naz Reid and DivinChenzo, and they travel to Denver where they have to play at altitude.
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