Milwaukee and Why

Let's look at some numbers:

       Milw.     36

4.5  Bos       29     

Line opens up at 4.5 for Bos. (madduxsports.com)   currently the same.    I give ratings to each team based on a variety of factors (assists, turnovers, def. etc) - Milw has a rating of 36 and Bos 29, often the lower the number the better.   However, when you compare the ratings to an opening line for the home team of 4.5 - the limited playoff data i have as well as the regular season data indicates Milw. should cover and a very good chance they win it straight up. 

I'm taking Milw. +4.5 and a smaller play on the Mline +170.    

Good luck all

Your clearly not factoring in the middle child injury, I don’t see them advancing without him 

Child?

@ToneKapone13

 He's joking around. He is referring to Khris Middleton being out

@GTD

 I didn't say they would advance. I'm only talking about today.

@GTD

 You are correct - in terms of not factoring in an injured player; however, i have found the oddsmakers, if given the opportunity (they have had time to consider this) and the fact they have the resources, history, data etc. will figure these things out and it's reflected in the line of 4.5.   At the end of the day no one in here knows what makes up the opening line on a game in terms of the exact weights being used to determine it.  We can all speculate but know one knows for certain.   

That's my take it on BOL to ya.

@TheBuddah

 Good stuff man

yes oddsmaker always have the best system with all the data we don’t have, but I agree that most of those reflect on the line…..

@TheBuddah

 Winner of game 1 wins the series 80% of the time. GL 

No way Celtics lose today 

I will reiterate, ZERO chance the Celtics lose today.

Me thinks Celtics blowout this afternoon in a rather boring game. Best game today will be GS/Grizz. 

i like  it, bucks actually look more focused after losing middleton. graysson is a turd but he is balling rn. think this come down to 2-3 pt game either way.  i'm acutally looking at the 'will there be a buzzer beater in the series prop' +1400 on DK

@Bay2LA

 Many said the same thing about the Dodgers yesterday - either way BOL to ya.

@GTD

 BOL - I hope your wrong about the series percentages - i got Bos on a futures bet:) 

@yorosan

 Thanks.   and BOL.

@buttas

 I'm only playing this one - bol to ya.

@nitmaster69

 Back at ya and BOL  

@nitmaster69

 What if there is a half second left after the shot?   Or 1 second.    Or 2?         I wouldn't bet that at all

@Irisheric777

the odds basically saying 1% chance of it happening in each game, assuming there are atleast 6 games. i think most the games will be close i like the odds

I'm guessing you are under 25 years old  

@thorpe

 lol   - i was thinking the same thing.

don’t remind me of the dodgers I took them live +2.5 when they had one on base with 1 out. was a pretty bad day in baseball yesterday and I wish there was still basketball games left. I have nothing to show for after being up this week with basketball and a little baseball.

GL  @TheBuddah 

Like it . . . +pts @ a premium in a close game Tight as a Water Crab's A*s*s 

@Bay2LA 

seriously 

@TheBuddah

@TheBuddah

 Great stuff Buddha!!! Thank you. BOL. 

@Puerta2Puerta

 Baseball is the best sport to bet on imho - if you really put the effort in to find patterns, look at the opening lines and track things.   Live betting based on observation is a tough way to bet in imho.   I live bet if my data says x team should win and they are down after the game starts - i'm getting some value if it comes thru with some minimal risk.    not trying to preach - your choice your consequence - just my thoughts.   

@Macwestie1

 Back at ya Bud

@SKSports

 Thanks and back at ya        

@Bay2LA

 Famous last words on covers....