MOST UN-RELIABLE TEAMS - Thursday (3/2)

1 out of 9 with BLOWN LEADS. PHI/MIA This was the highest number of consistent games since 1/3! Squares made bank.

It was the most incredible day of RELIABLE action of the entire season. What a way to start March!

It would have been a perfect sweep if BOS didn't absolutely crap the bed in the 4Q. Just made no sense and they were at HOME. What the hell was that!

Only got PHO and LAL but you could not go wrong paying the juice with today's action.

Missed BKN due to some other business, and by the time the 1Q was over, so was the game.

Even the LATE GAME was calm in the end. No 4Q dramatics. No final seconds drama. No OT. Just a quiet 4Q, where one team took command.

RELIABLE FAVORITE PHO -10 WON / BOS -6.5 LOST / PHI -1.5 WON / NYK -7 WON / MIL -8.5 WON / LAL -1.5 WON (8-2 L10 How do you top a day like this?)

ROAD FAVORITE PHO -10 WON / CHI -6 LOST / PHI -1.5 WON / MEM -9.5 WON / LAL -1.5 WON (FAVORITES are running wild!)

RELIABLE HOME DOG NONE

RELIABLE AWAY DOG BKN +7 LOST (Was not the day for DOGS.)

The league needs a break after that performance and gets it on TNT Thursday. Don't expect to see that again this season.

MOST UN-RELIABLE TEAM WAW (DAL)

All season long, WAW has been erratic at home. My nemesis DAL is on the schedule tonight. No LIVE BETS here.

MOST RELIABLE TEAM SAS

It may sound ridiculous, but SAS, at HOME, is the MOST RELIABLE team in the league. They either win early or lose early.

RELIABLE FAVORITE IND -4 (No way this line can keep winning like this.)

ROAD FAVORITE TOR -1 / IND -4 / LAC -2.5

RELIABLE HOME DOG SAS +4 (The most profitable line of all.)

RELIABLE AWAY DOG NONE

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RELIABLE FAVORITES since 11/16/2022

SU 168-76 / ATS 133-108-3

SU (117-49 H // 51-27 A)

ATS (89-76-1 H // 44-32-2 A)

Thanks for all your info & congrats on yesterday! Hope your luck continues

i dont understand

spurs 0-4 last 4 home games how is that a RELIABLE 

@kings_duce

This thread is about RELIABLE teams. Teams that let you know early in the game if they win or lose. That way, when you LIVE BET, you can just wait for + ML or ATS spots and have a good chance for profit (without the juice). If you do a PRE-GAME bet, you know what to look for and why.

SAS has not had a BLOWN LEAD, at HOME, in more than a month! I think that qualifies as RELIABLE.

This way, you see things that the ATS, home/road record, schedule, streak, and lineup changes would never tell you.

@PokertoSports

I don’t understand this. Portland had the lead most of the first half, and were up by 7 in the 3rd quarter. They ended up losing to the Pelicans. How does that not qualify as a blown lead?

@CVSPharm23

When saying BLOWN LEAD, it is really BLOWN --> EARLY <-- LEAD.

NOP took control of the 2Q all the way until 3:30, when POR got the lead just before the half.

NOP had the EARLY LEAD and held on to win.

If you LIVE BET NOP when they were down at the half or just about any time in the 3Q, you got a nice hit.

That is where the profit is made LIVE betting. Waiting for spots like that.

Of course, you would never risk action on two sorry, BUM ass teams like NOP/POR.

You wait for RELIABLE teams like MIL PHO SAC LAL BOS.

@ParlayBuster

 Great explanation. Thank you!

@ParlayBuster

 So, you have Indiana as a Reliable Favorite & a Reliable Home Favorite. On the other hand, San Antonio shows up as a Reliable Home Dog.  

In this case, is there a choice or is this a no bet situation?

@Ken_210

 When you have a RELIABLE team playing, it is ALWAYS a betting spot.

If you bet PRE-GAME, you ALWAYS take the RELIABLE HOME DOG over RELIABLE AWAY FAVORITE. That is, if you bet at all.

If you want to play it safe, just wait to see who gets the early LEAD and bet that team.

Since I am looking to increase my bankroll with the least risk, will do a LIVE BET on the team with the early LEAD (thinking that will be SAS, for a nice payout).

NO guarantees, but this is a great spot for a nice, quiet, boring, predictable game.

Will post my play, if I make one.

@ParlayBuster

 So your strategy would be don’t place a bet until the first quarter or so, and if Spurs have the early lead - then take them as a live bet ML? And since they are Reliable, they shouldn’t blow this early lead and continue on to win the game? Is this correct? 

@CVSPharm23

Generally, I count 1Q bets as PRE-GAME bets. It's just too early.

Once you get into the 2Q, these are LIVE bets for my action.

But, yes, if SAS had the early LEAD, then you LIVE bet them at a decent +ML SU. After that, just wait for the game to finish and collect your winnings.

If IND gets the early LEAD, then you cannot get IND +ML. And, if it is close in the 4Q (2-3 points), odds say IND blows the lead and SAS wins.

Doesn't matter when you bet (2Q, HT, 3Q, 4Q), just be sure it is a +ML. That way if you win, it covers your next loss and then some. And, if you lose, you know there is a strong chance it hits next time for +ML. Do that over the course of a season, and the bankroll builds and builds.

Over the season, RELIABLE HOME DOGS had the best return of any play on a RELIABLE team. The only problem is that these spots only happen 2 or 3 times a week.

Well, I messed that up.

IND took the early LEAD.

Went out for HT, and came back. SAS went on a 15-3 run and lead by 10 points early in the 3Q.

In desperation, took SAS -9.5 +100 mid-4Q.