NBA 2008-09, Week 8 thread...

I want to apologize to the board for that stone loser Friday night...I fell asleep abou 30 minutes before it started and slept through the entire game...Woke up and saw a voicemail waiting for me from a few teammates who obviously tailed me and they called after the 1Q had ended and razzed me pretty good for that sh*tty call, as well they should...I may be good fade material for a few weeks and I recommend watching me for now and laying off my picks until the corner is turned...

My modus operandi has always been that I will hit one hot streak during the season that will last 5 to 6 weeks (some years up to 9 or 10 weeks, if I am on)...So I would wait for me to have a hot week and then perhaps tail me after the corner is turned...I would tail the other good cappers on this board for now and lay off all my picks till further notice...Please keep money management in mind...I lost almost 7% of my bankroll last night with my 2 picks and have lost about 10% of my bankroll the last 2 weeks...Just a terrible stretch...No point in tailing me right now...

When things aren't working, adjustments need to be made on the fly...I am an eyelash away from changing to a grind-it-out style, betting every game on the NBA board with a completely different betting system...Completely different...But I am not sure I want to re-organize my bankroll to accomodate this just yet, and I also know that virtually nobody on forums would be interested in this style as most people are looking for 1 or 2 plays a day...But I may switch over if I continue to fail over the next month...I hate losing money, so it I continue to sputter with my bets, then I will switch over to a grind-it-out style with a unique betting style that most people won't agree with, but as I back-test the betting style, I think it'll work for me and my bankroll...Most people aren't going to want to deal with it and I don't blame them really...I just hate to lose...I despise losing...

Anyway, placed a bet which I recommened you lay off unless you see some other good cappers on this forum on it...If not, fade it or just watch for a week...Let me muddle through this cold spell for a while here...I will just feel better knowing people are NOT following my picks until I show signs that I can make winning bets again...My goal right now is simply to have a winning record at all 3 levels by year's end...

Will have picks and updated records later...

BET:

Level 2 -- Los Angeles Lakers -1.5, laying $787.50 to win $750 -- Still some -1's out there as I bet this...Lakers on a NC8 and ORL scorching hot and on a C6...Lakers are playing like crap while Orlando is playing great...I have already talked about the history of long NC streaks vs. long C streaks...The NC streak will covers in this particular spot over 70% of the time (and with NC8 or higher, it's more like over 80% of the time...I am a trend guy and have to play these odds...Plus, most of those teams that have the NC8 are teams with losing records...Here we have the Lakers, who are 21-4, a true rarity of a spot here...Lakers are 4-1 ATS on back-enders...However, going aginst is the fact that ORL is 4-0 ATS when they have rest and their opponents do not...Lakers off a loss are 1-2 ATS, but 1-0 ATS on the Road after a loss, when they have a lower number to deal with...Lakers haven't lost twice in a row all season...Doesn't mean they will win here, but I am playing the odds on that and the odds on the long NC streak team covering successfully vs. the long C streak team...

Again, at Level 2, I am betting to win 5% of my Level 2 bankrool and 2.5% of my Level 1 bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...