The moneyline for this contest implies a 84.3% chance of a victory for the Celtics. Indiana is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games against an opponent in the Atlantic Division. Boston is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games against an opponent in the Central Division. The Celtics are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana. Dunkel's Pick: Boston (-11.5).
Boston has the third-best straight-up record in the NBA this season at 22-8. They have the fourth-worst against-the-spread record in the league this season at 11-19. The Celtics are winning games, but they aren’t winning by enough to cover the spread. To wit, Boston is 11-18 ATS as a favorite this season. What’s more, the Celtics are 10-16 ATS in conference games and 5-11 ATS in home games this season. It’s hard to trust a Boston team that lost outright as favorites of 9.5 points or more in 3 of their last 4 contests.
The Celtics were favored by 9.5 points against the Sixers on Christmas Day and lost outright 118-114. Boston was favored by 9.5 points against a shorthanded Magic team and lost outright 108-104 on December 23rd. On December 19th, Boston was favored by 14.5 points over Chicago and lost at home 117-108.
The oddsmakers have pumped up the Celtics’ spreads after they won the championship last season. Until the numbers adjust, I’m inclined to take the underdog in most Boston matchups. The Pacers and the points are the pick on the road in Beantown on Friday night.
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