The over is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Phoenix and has cashed in five of the Clippers’ last six games overall, as well as in all four of their last four games as an underdog. On the other side, the over is 12-5-1 in the Suns’ last 18 games coming off an ATS win and is 21-10 in their last 31 games when favored. OV 214.5 / A.Rome
LA Clippers @ Phoenix
Clippers
— Clippers have been playing every other day since June 2.
— Clippers won last two series, after falling behind 2-0 in both.
— Clippers’ starters were a combined +104 in Game 3, minus-28 in Game 4.
— Check status on Kawhi Leonard; he sat with his family, not on the bench during Game 4.
Phoenix was held to 102-95-92 points in its three playoff losses.
— Suns are in playoffs for first time in a decade.
— Chris Paul shot 11-41 from floor last two games.
— Teams combined to shoot 9-51 on arc in Game 4.
— Clippers won six of last ten series games.
— Clippers are 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Phoenix.
— Under is 7-3 in last ten series games.
— 84 points Phoenix scored in Game 4 is fewest points winning team has scored in any NBA game this whole season.
After dropping three heartbreakers to open this series by roughly 3.7 points per loss, the Clippers travel to Phoenix for Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals as a 5.5-point underdog against the Suns in The Valley.
I’ll take the points with L.A. here – as Monday’s Game 5 should at least turn out highly competitive with the Clippers sitting on the brink of elimination again Clip 105-107 + 5.5
M.Crosson
One of the strange things about this series is that the Suns actually have been outscored by the Clippers and would be losing in aggregate 403-400, yet they’re up 3 games to 1 with a chance to close out this series and earn a NBA Finals berth. That tells you just how close this series has been even though the results of the games themselves have been a bit lopsided.
One thing that’s concerning to me is that the Clippers have made just 34.8% of their 3-point shots this series, down from 41.8% during the regular season, per Cleaning the Glass. The difference here is the quality of shot.
The Suns are getting more pressure on the perimeter, and their rotations are cleaner and swifter than most teams. This has lead to a decrease in not only Wide Open 3s (>6 feet between the shooter and closest defender), but a downturn in the Clippers’ shooting percentages on both Wide Open 3s and Open 3s (4-6 feet).
The Clippers are getting about three fewer Wide Open 3s, and they are shooting a combined 35.8% on these Open attempts. This is a significant downturn from their regular-season number of 42.7% on those attempts, per NBA Advanced Stats. The Suns make you work for clean looks, and given the fatigue to the Clippers best players, this is not a spot I expect improvement from in a critical Game 5.
I fully intend on playing some Deandre Ayton props given his usage this series, but I’m turning to the spread for this game. The 5.5 is a larger spread but over the last five years, favorites in Games 5-7 of the Conference Finals are 12-5 ATS, covering by an average margin of 4.29 points. Given the stakes and the way the Suns have played, I think this is the end of the road for the Clippers, and the Suns will await the winner of Bucks vs Hawks in the Finals.
Pick: Suns -5.5 / By J.Dellera
GIMME the CLIPPERS +5.5 (-110) for 1 unit because this series is a lot closer than Phoenix’s 3-1 lead indicates. In fact, L.A. has a slightly better net rating and scoring margin and has split the “four factors” stats so far.
Furthermore, you could make an argument that the Clippers should be up 3-1 even though they are without their best player. The Clippers missed so many wide-open 3-point attempts in Game 5. If just two more 3’s go down, we have an even series.
Lastly, the presumed “sharp” side of the market is the Clippers +5.5 while the “average Joe” is backing the Suns -5.5, according to Pregame.com.
Typically, it’s wiser in sports gambling to follow the money, especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.
“LEAN” to the UNDER 214.5 (-110) for a half unit only because we are getting the worst of the number since Clippers-Suns Game 5 opened with a 218-point total before the market steamed the total / G.Clark
There’s moments of this series that feel straight out the 90s.
The Phoenix Suns are just one game away from making their first NBA Finals since 1993 and in many ways, this series feels like a throwback those days. As a whole, this series is being played at a pace of just 90.9 possessions.
Check out the amount of possessions played throughout this series:
Game 1: 92
Game 2: 89.7
Game 3: 91.9
Game 4: 89.8
Along with this being a slow paced series, it’s also a good ol’ fashioned rock fight as the Clippers look dead tired. It’s clear that playing long series against the Mavericks and Jazz have caught up to them.
When you factor in absence of Kawhi Leonard, the injury to Marcus Morris and Paul George playing an unsustainable amount of minutes, the Clippers aren’t scoring nearly as efficiently as they were for most of the postseason. If there’s a positive, it’s that they’ve done a sold job at defending both Chris Paul and Devin Booker.
As the Clippers fight to keep their season alive, I’m not expecting a high scoring game. I’ll play the under here. UN 214.5
R.Palmer
It’s not LA’s fault. The Clippers have given it everything, and deserve full credit for getting as far as they have. They could’ve folded in Round 1 to the Mavs, and certainly should’ve gone out to the No. 1-seeded Jazz last round after falling down 0-2 and then losing Kawhi Leonard, who was probably the playoff MVP at that point.
Instead, the Clips have pushed all the way, closing out the Jazz and not being too far from a 3-1 WCF lead themselves if they’d caught a couple bounces. In fact, the Clippers have outscored the Suns so far this series.
Unfortunately, the only numbers that matter are 3-1 now. The Suns have lost two games in a row only three times since an 8-8 start, and they haven’t lost three in a row since January.
The Suns are 6-1 at home in the playoffs with an average winning margin of 9.7 points. The Suns are the better team and have dominated first halves in this series before hot Clippers shooting made things close each game. I’m not sure how long LA can rely on that to keep happening.
The Suns have been especially good in closeout games this postseason, and they know they dare not let the Clips hang around, as resilient as they’ve been and with a potential Leonard return still lingering.
I look for Phoenix to come out guns blazing and push the pace against a Clippers team that’s played games every two days since late May, most of them essentially elimination games. And if the Suns get the crowd going too and run out to a big lead, I’m not sure the Clips have a counter punch left.
I like Phoenix, and I like them big. I smell blood in the water, and I think they do too. I’m not willing to just take the win here, I’m playing alternate lines.
I’ll grab Phoenix -9 at DraftKings for +170, and then I’ll sprinkle a portion of my bet on the highest line available there, Suns -15 at +400 in case this really gets away from LA. Paul George, Reggie Jackson, et all have been heroic so far but I’m just not sure there’s much left in the tank. Suns -9 +400 /B.Anderson
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