Nba Picks and Why

We have had a good run - let's try to keep it going.   Let's look at some numbers:

        Philly     27  

-5.5  Denver  34

Denver opened at 5.5 currently the same or -6  (madduxsports.com) .    Philly has a rating of 27 and Denver 34 - once again lower the better.    My data is telling me to take Philly f/h and Denver for the game.   I know it's kinda strange for some of you to root for one team and then the other.   I break things down for the game as well as f/h.  I just let history tell me what to do.   I think this is a good opportunity to hit both thus sharing.   If your not comfortable pick one or the other.   

My plays:

1. Philly + 3  F/h   

2. Denver -6  gm

3. Bulls +4.5 gm

4. Small parlay   Philly ml f/h +160 to Bulls +155 gm  pays 5.6 to 1.

Good luck all

@TheBuddah

 Yep good analysis. Bucks n nuggets game was similar bucks first half nuggets game 

What do you think about the Mavs today Buddah?

@ncriz1

 I forgot about that one.  I do it on a game by game basis, in this case we got several data points indicating philly fh thus playing it   Bol to ya . 

@JordanKing23

 The Nba I have found is very tricky compared to other sports.  I used to avoid it for a long time.   I started betting it in 2011 but with a strict criteria.   That game doesn’t fall within my criteria today so I got no thoughts on it.  Sorry.   Bol though. 

@TheBuddah

 What is your best bet among those? 

@BreezyBoy

 I bet them equally … with the exception of the parlay.   I feel comfortable with all three .  Bol 

@TheBuddah

 Hi....sorry for me asking where do you get the rating philly 27 and denver 34? I try to look it up but can not find it? and also base on your criteria would it not be better to play denver 2nd half then just whole game since you have philly cover 1st half?

@TheBuddah

 BOL today bro. I do like Phila today. Look like I’ll just bet them 1H today.  

@lemonhead504

For the ratings i have my own method of calculating those.   It has to do with how x drives y - or how the independent variable drives the dependent variable.   For example, in basketball, imho - i think assists, turnover, def, etc. drive who is going to win and cover.   I got a methodolgy of how to encompass these things and come up with a number that represents the team on that day.   It doesn't always work and there's still plenty of room for improvement.   

Regarding your second question - i found it's better to just go with what the data is telling me vice hoping philly is winning by 2 points and taking a lower s/h line where i get a better spread etc.   Or if Denver ends up crushing both - i might lose a little vig but i at least gave myself an opp to take both and hopefully get both.  

Looks like Embiid is out. Line shooting up

@monkeebooger

 Shit…. I got it at 6 ….. then it went to 5.5 and bam up up to 6.5 and 7 .   I appreciate the update…. As I said yesterday …. That’s the nba.   I’m locked not changing anything . Bol whatever you do . 

@TheBuddah

 oh okay Thanks bro. BOL 

@lemonhead504

 Thanks and back at ya.

Embid is out 

@bigdude

 Thanks for the update.   Let’s see if his replacement can help philly keep it close in the first half.   

@Fuse

 Thanks and back at ya . 

@PerfectStorm

 Didn’t see your post. I hope they can get fh … we shall see . Bol to ya 

@TheBuddah

 I see + 4 awhile ago. Waiting to see if it rise .. 

If your FH prophecy rings true, I’ll take the Nuggets ML live at the half.

GL bud.

@PerfectStorm

 I haven’t checked seen it went up earlier 

@AverageAllstar

 we shall see in a few. Back at ya . 

@Capppro69

 Back at ya