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NBA picks, Saturday, February 4, 2012

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Legend
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Posted: #1
YTD: Will update after Friday's results.

Bookmaker has lines out right now for SAT games, no reason to not look at them...

Saturday card:

1. Indiana Pacers -6 (-110), 1.65 to win 1.5
2. Philadelphia 76ers +4 (-110), 1.1 to win 1
3. Los Angeles Clippers -7.5 (-110), 1.65 to win 1.5
4. Minnesota Timberwolves -3 (-110), 1.1 to win 1
5. Charlotte Bobcats +10 (-110), 2.2 to win 2

Really, really, really want to make CHA +10 my first 3 unit play of the year but I am going to hold off. I think this is a great spot for them though and would not be surprised if they win SU. Yes, I know, CHA sucks. I know this. But even sucky teams win in the NBA, and especially against a PHX team playing its 3rd game in 4 nights.

Good luck to all
 
Captain
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Posted: #2
Thought you only flat bet....glad to see you listening to my advice.


 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
early post. not complaining though, just appreciating.

anyway i think i like the hawks as they come from a big loss to mem, and win or lose i think phi will be tired from playing the heat. just my thoughts.

gl 
 
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Posted: #4
BOL kap 
 
Legend
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by smartbets:

Thought you only flat bet....glad to see you listening to my advice.




I do not only flat bet, but I've made over 100 plays YTD and none have been higher than 2 units... I'd guess maybe 10% of my plays are 2 units, another 15% are 1.5 units, and the rest are 1 units.

With all due respect, I didn't learn about flat betting / varying amounts of bets based upon perceived strength of play from you.  I've been varying them since the beginning of last year... my argument was more about the fact that winning percentage (in my mind) is truly indicative of a good capper than units won (which can be easily manipulated)


 
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Posted: #6
Where did you see the lines?
 
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Posted: #7
Nice to see your picks early. BOL Kap!
 
Captain
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:



I do not only flat bet, but I've made over 100 plays YTD and none have been higher than 2 units... I'd guess maybe 10% of my plays are 2 units, another 15% are 1.5 units, and the rest are 1 units.

With all due respect, I didn't learn about flat betting / varying amounts of bets based upon perceived strength of play from you.  I've been varying them since the beginning of last year... my argument was more about the fact that winning percentage (in my mind) is truly indicative of a good capper than units won (which can be easily manipulated)


they can be manipulated when guys are throwing 15, 20, 35u etc. That's just people chasing.

I was simply stating to rate plays such as 1,2,3 to take advantage of good situations.

Having a good record is one indication of being a good handicapper. Taking advantage of spots, is another to maximize profits. Put the two together and you will be very successful.

I say all that because I think we could all agree that through all sports, there are a handful of great situations to make money on, those spots where you just see the line and you have that instinct. They occur a handful of times, not every week. If you settle for just 1u, you are leaving money on the table.


 
Legend
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by vasilli07:

Where did you see the lines?


Bookmaker
 
Legend
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by smartbets:

they can be manipulated when guys are throwing 15, 20, 35u etc. That's just people chasing.

I was simply stating to rate plays such as 1,2,3 to take advantage of good situations.

Having a good record is one indication of being a good handicapper. Taking advantage of spots, is another to maximize profits. Put the two together and you will be very successful.

I say all that because I think we could all agree that through all sports, there are a handful of great situations to make money on, those spots where you just see the line and you have that instinct. They occur a handful of times, not every week. If you settle for just 1u, you are leaving money on the table.




I think we are on the same page, hopefully no misunderstanding. I thought that was what you were talking about in bold on the first paragraph. 
 
Legend
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Posted: #11
Updated YTD:


Friday: 3-1, +2.05 units
YTD: 68-54-4, +14.58 units
 
Banned
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Posted: #12
already...
 
Legend
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Posted: #13

1. Indiana Pacers -6 (-110), 1.65 to win 1.5
2. Philadelphia 76ers +4 (-110), 1.1 to win 1
3. Los Angeles Clippers -7.5 (-110), 1.65 to win 1.5
4. Minnesota Timberwolves -3 (-110), 1.1 to win 1
5. Charlotte Bobcats +10 (-110), 2.2 to win 2


Saturday: 4-1, +3.85 units
YTD: 72-55-4, +18.53 units
 
Prospect
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Posted: #14
FUCK MAN!NICE RECORD.. I NOW HAVE BIG RESPECT ON YAAAA
 
Prospect
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Posted: #15
congratulations kap! i used to tail you during the start of the season and it makes me money.. but you became cold and i chose to stop tailing you for a while and i think, im gonna tail you again.. with or without writeups hehe
 
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